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Confidence Interval: Will California Voters Recall Gov. Gavin Newsom?

It’s another episode of Confidence Interval, where we make a persuasive case for a hot take we’ve been hearing … and then reveal how confident we really feel about the idea. Here, elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich argues that California voters will not recall Gov. Gavin Newsom, despite his controversial pandemic response and evidence that he violated his own COVID-19 protocols.

[Related: California’s Gavin Newsom Will Likely Face A Recall Election — But He’ll Probably Survive It]


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Nathaniel Rakich is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight.

Tony Chow is a video producer for FiveThirtyEight.

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