UPDATE (Nov. 21, 8:21 p.m., 2018): With so few races outstanding, this will be our last update to this article (although we will continue to update our real-time seat forecast). Come back after Thanksgiving for fresh articles about the still-developing Mississippi U.S. Senate runoff and California 21st District. Over the last two weeks, we’ve removed 20 elections from the text below as their winners have gradually been projected: the Arizona U.S. Senate race,1 California 10th District, California 39th District,2 California 45th District, California 48th District, California 49th District, Georgia 6th District,3 Maine 2nd District,4 New Jersey 3rd District,5 New Mexico 2nd District,6 New York 22nd District7 and Washington 8th District,8 which have been called for Democrats; and the Florida U.S. Senate race,9 Georgia 7th District,10 Minnesota 1st District,11 New York 27th District,12 North Carolina 9th District,13 Texas 23rd District,14 Florida governor15 and Georgia governor,16 which have been called for Republicans. Our original write-ups on those races can be found in the footnotes.
Everyone has voted, the results are in and we know who will control the Senate and the House — but several races remain unresolved. (We warned you this might happen.) As of 8:21 p.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 21, news outlets have yet to project winners in three races: one for the U.S. Senate and two for the U.S. House. Here’s the state of each undecided race — including our best estimate of who might prevail when all is said and done.
After a recount in Florida’s U.S. Senate race confirmed GOP Gov. Rick Scott’s victory, Republicans’ net gain in the Senate stood at two, where it is likely to remain. The only Senate election left to be decided is the special election in Mississippi, which is proceeding to a runoff on Nov. 27 after none of the candidates secured 50 percent of the vote on Nov. 6. Appointed Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is the favorite against Democratic former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Espy thanks to the state’s dark red hue.
Both of the remaining unresolved House races appear to favor Democrats, though one by significantly more than the other. Here’s the full lowdown:
- In California, it’s not unusual for close races to still be uncalled even several days after the election. That’s because most people in California vote by mail, and mail ballots only have to be postmarked by Election Day; they can arrive at elections offices as late as three days later and still be counted. For that reason, we think the California 21st District is far from over, even though the Associated Press and ABC have both already projected a Republican win there. GOP Rep. David Valadao has less than a 1-point lead, but the votes that have been released in recent days have favored Democrat T.J. Cox, and the counties that have yet to report the most votes appear to lean Democratic as well.
- In the two weeks following Election Day in the Utah 4th District, Republican Rep. Mia Love and Democratic Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams took turns in first place as more mail-in votes were alternately reported in Utah County (Love’s political base) and Salt Lake County (McAdams’s base). At last, on Nov. 20, both counties certified their results, and McAdams ended up on top by 694 votes, or 0.26 percentage points. A 0.25-point margin would have triggered a recount. The AP has called the race, but Love has technically not yet conceded.
We’ll update this post on a semi-regular basis with the latest news and numbers from these races.
CORRECTION (Nov. 9, 2018, 6 p.m.): An earlier version of this article misidentified the Florida county of Palm Beach as West Palm.