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Politics Podcast: Why Have Democrats’ Odds Of Winning The Senate Improved?

In the past week, Democrats’ odds of keeping control of the Senate after the midterms have ticked up to around 60 percent, according to our Deluxe forecast model. In this installment of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to this change. They also ask whether there is reason to expect the current environment to hold as we get closer to Election Day and whether we should be skeptical of the polls showing Democrats performing well in parts of the Midwest where polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans.


You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.

Galen Druke is FiveThirtyEight’s podcast producer and reporter.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.