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Our NBA Player Projections Are Ready For 2018-19

Just in time for the NBA’s free agent bonanza (headlined by LeBron James’s The Decision: Part III), FiveThirtyEight has re-launched CARMELO, our NBA player projection system, with forecasts for 2018-19 and beyond.

CARMELO Player Projections

CARMELO NBA Player Projections: Our probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like, based on similar players throughout history. See our projections for 2018-19 and beyond »

The basics of the system are largely similar to previous years, with the backbone of CARMELO remaining an algorithm that compares current players to past ones who had statistically similar profile through the same age. For instance, Utah Jazz phenom Donovan Mitchell is similar to players such as Gilbert Arenas, Ray Allen, Stephen Curry, Ben Gordon, Victor Oladipo and O.J. Mayo through this early point in their respective careers. Some of those players (Allen, Curry) became superstars, while others (Gordon, Mayo) didn’t really pan out. The combination of those good and not-so-good outcomes gives us a probabilistic forecast for the rest of Mitchell’s career.

In a moment, I’ll describe the (relatively minor) changes to CARMELO this year, but first, a quick word about how the system did last season.

How CARMELO Performed in 2017-18

In the regular season, CARMELO performed very well, as its preseason projections were the second-most accurate of the 20 projection systems tracked by the statheads at the ABPRmetrics message board. It also correctly predicted the Warriors defeating the Cavaliers as the most likely NBA Finals matchup (not that this was a bold take, exactly).

CARMELO was also among the most accurate regular-season prediction systems in its debut year in 2015-16, although it was one of the least accurate in 2016-17. What accounted for these differences? In 2015-16 and 2017-18, CARMELO used a combination of Real Plus-Minus and Box Plus/Minus to make its forecasts, whereas in 2016-17 it solely used BPM. (CARMELO uses a mix of two-thirds RPM and one-third BPM rather than weighting them equally.) While we’ll want another two or three season to know for sure, we strongly suspect that the RPM/BPM blend outperforms BPM alone.

In addition to our preseason projections, we update our projections for teams — though not for individual players — during the season using a version of the Elo rating system. (These are our so-called “CARM-Elo” projections.) In contrast to our preseason projections, these in-season projections sometimes seemed pretty hinky last season, at least when it came to forecasting the NBA playoffs. Despite an adjustment that was meant to give extra credit to teams with more playoff experience, the system seemed to overcorrect based on how teams finished out their regular seasons — getting too bullish on the 76ers and Raptors, for example, and too bearish on the Warriors and Cavs.

One potential shortcoming is that whereas our preseason projections use depth charts and projected playing time for each team, the in-season updates do not. For instance, they had no way to account for Curry’s injury late in the regular season and subsequent return in the second round of the playoffs. One solution could be to continuously update depth charts (and CARMELO player projections) throughout the season instead of just at the start of the year. We’re examining alternatives; just know, for now, that we think the preseason CARMELO projections are pretty smart, but that our Elo-based method for updating them during the season might require some rethinking.

What’s Different In CARMELO for 2018-19

The major fix to CARMELO this season isn’t a change in how the system projects players, but rather in how it values them. Like many modern statistical systems, CARMELO uses a notion of the replacement-level player in calculating player value. A replacement-level player, in theory, is someone who is freely or cheaply available, e.g. a G League player or someone signed to a contract for the league minimum salary.

How good, or bad, are these sorts of players? They’re below-average — but it turns out they’re not that far below average. Over the past four seasons, players signed to minimum-salary contracts or two-way contracts subtract about 1.5 points per 100 possessions from a team’s scoring margin1, relative to an average player — somewhat better than the -2.0 points per 100 possessions that CARMELO had assumed before. Moreover, we found that the quality of replacement-level players differs quite a bit by position. As the NBA shifts to smaller lineups, it’s relatively easy to find reasonably productive bigs on the waiver wire (see my colleague Chris Herring’s story on the sad saga of Roy Hibbert). But it’s harder to find good wings or point guards. Thus, our calculation of wins above replacement is now position-based, using the values you see in the table below.2

How good are replacement-level NBA players?

Based on performance of players signed to minimum or two-way contracts, 2014-15 through 2017-18

Plus-Minus (Points per 100 possessions)
Position Offense Defense Combined
PG -0.7 -1.0 -1.7
SG -1.1 -0.8 -1.9
SF -1.4 -0.2 -1.6
PF -1.4 +0.3 -1.1
C -1.7 +1.3 -0.4
Overall -1.2 -0.3 -1.5

Sources: ESPN.com, Basketball-Reference.com

The overall effect of these changes is, first, to boost the value of guards and wings relative to big men, and second, to increase the value of star players relative to average ones. (If you can sign a guy who’s only slightly below average for the minimum salary, you shouldn’t pay that much of a premium to grab a merely average player instead.) We think this brings CARMELO a little closer to how NBA teams actually value players.3

One other small modification is that we now issue projections for American-born players who had little or no NCAA playing time, such as Anfernee Simons (who decided to forgo his college eligibility) or Michael Porter Jr. (who played only three games at Missouri because of injury).4 These projections use a limited set of information — namely the player’s position, height, weight, age, draft position, and their career number of NCAA minutes played. (Our regular projections for rookies, by contrast, use NCAA stats that have been adjusted for pace and opponent quality, as provided to us by ESPN’s Stats & Information Group). Last year, we’d introduced similar projections for players who played in Europe (or another international league) rather than the NCAA; this is simply an extension of that system for players who neither played in Europe nor the NCAA.

Finally, as a small token of appreciation our for people who made it through this entire story on methodology, here are our new CARMELO projections in capsule form, with a summary of 2018-19 as well as long-term projections for the more than 600 players in our system. Have fun browsing through the CARMELOs and enjoying the drama of the NBA offseason.

2018-19 CARMELO projections, in one chart

2018-19 Projection Long-TERM
Player
Off. +/-
Def. +/-
Tot. +/-
Min.
WAR
7-Year Upside
Russell Westbrook +6.3 +1.0 +7.3 2481 12.4 52.7
James Harden +6.6 +0.1 +6.7 2496 11.8 53.8
Stephen Curry +6.8 -0.2 +6.6 2088 9.6 42.8
LeBron James +5.4 +0.8 +6.2 2764 11.5 41.0
Nikola Jokic +4.0 +2.1 +6.2 2181 8.3 49.7
Chris Paul +5.1 +0.9 +6.0 2120 9.1 32.4
Giannis Antetokounmpo +3.1 +2.4 +5.5 2558 9.8 57.3
Anthony Davis +1.7 +3.2 +4.9 2573 8.2 42.4
Karl-Anthony Towns +4.0 +0.8 +4.8 2634 7.6 49.4
Ben Simmons +2.5 +2.3 +4.8 2524 8.8 65.5
Jimmy Butler +3.3 +1.4 +4.7 2310 8.3 38.3
Kawhi Leonard +2.6 +1.9 +4.6 1670 5.6 22.3
DeMarcus Cousins +2.4 +2.2 +4.5 2100 6.0 26.5
Draymond Green +0.9 +3.4 +4.3 2332 7.0 28.6
Kevin Durant +3.6 +0.7 +4.3 2201 6.8 27.3
Kyle Lowry +4.3 -0.2 +4.1 2319 7.5 28.2
Joel Embiid +0.8 +3.3 +4.1 1944 4.8 28.9
Rudy Gobert -0.7 +4.7 +4.1 2122 5.3 23.9
Damian Lillard +5.4 -1.5 +3.9 2591 8.1 37.4
Otto Porter Jr. +2.6 +1.2 +3.8 2415 7.0 37.7
Victor Oladipo +2.2 +1.5 +3.7 2489 7.7 38.0
Jayson Tatum +1.2 +1.7 +2.9 2729 6.5 51.9
Jordan Bell +0.0 +2.8 +2.8 1310 2.5 16.4
Robert Covington -0.2 +3.0 +2.8 2274 5.2 23.5
Paul George +2.1 +0.6 +2.7 2640 6.2 25.1
Kemba Walker +4.1 -1.5 +2.6 2625 6.3 26.0
Kyrie Irving +4.2 -1.7 +2.6 2251 5.3 26.2
Lonzo Ball +0.4 +2.1 +2.5 2481 5.8 45.3
Andre Drummond -0.5 +2.9 +2.5 2463 3.9 19.8
Blake Griffin +2.0 +0.5 +2.4 2055 4.0 13.5
Kevin Love +1.6 +0.8 +2.4 1887 3.3 10.7
Al Horford +0.5 +1.9 +2.4 2146 3.5 10.3
Kristaps Porzingis +0.0 +2.3 +2.3 2052 3.7 25.6
Kyle Anderson -0.7 +3.0 +2.3 1931 3.8 22.2
John Wall +2.4 -0.2 +2.2 2252 4.9 20.0
Ricky Rubio +1.3 +0.9 +2.2 2310 5.0 21.1
Donovan Mitchell +2.2 -0.1 +2.1 2674 5.9 45.6
Kelly Olynyk +0.8 +1.3 +2.1 1797 2.8 13.0
Ekpe Udoh -1.6 +3.7 +2.1 553 0.8 2.2
Jrue Holiday +1.4 +0.6 +1.9 2597 5.4 20.5
DeAndre Jordan -0.3 +2.2 +1.9 2094 2.7 9.1
Lucas Nogueira -1.7 +3.6 +1.9 1069 1.4 7.3
Clint Capela -0.5 +2.4 +1.9 2067 2.7 14.1
Steven Adams +0.1 +1.7 +1.8 2394 3.0 15.0
Tyus Jones +1.7 +0.2 +1.8 1837 3.6 29.1
Joe Ingles +0.9 +0.9 +1.7 2124 3.7 12.2
Gordon Hayward +2.1 -0.4 +1.7 1112 2.2 7.3
Eric Bledsoe +2.1 -0.5 +1.7 2218 4.1 15.9
Bradley Beal +2.8 -1.2 +1.6 2705 5.3 27.4
Larry Nance Jr. -0.7 +2.4 +1.6 1724 2.3 12.2
LaMarcus Aldridge +0.5 +1.1 +1.6 2296 3.0 7.6
Nikola Vucevic -0.7 +2.3 +1.6 1967 2.2 8.3
Tyreke Evans +1.7 -0.1 +1.5 1717 3.1 10.4
Nikola Mirotic +0.7 +0.8 +1.5 1838 2.6 10.9
Cody Zeller -0.7 +2.1 +1.5 1511 1.9 9.5
Kyle O’Quinn -0.9 +2.3 +1.4 1404 1.7 6.6
Pau Gasol -0.9 +2.3 +1.4 1532 1.8 3.0
Jusuf Nurkic -1.9 +3.3 +1.4 1919 2.0 13.5
Paul Millsap -0.5 +1.9 +1.3 1689 2.3 5.5
Aaron Gordon +1.0 +0.3 +1.3 2301 3.3 22.5
Delon Wright +0.7 +0.5 +1.3 1541 2.5 13.0
Myles Turner -0.9 +2.2 +1.3 2238 2.5 19.5
Jakob Poeltl -0.8 +2.1 +1.3 1579 1.7 13.6
Fred VanVleet +1.5 -0.2 +1.3 1657 2.7 16.7
Amir Johnson -1.2 +2.5 +1.2 1230 1.4 3.6
Dejounte Murray -0.8 +1.9 +1.2 1855 3.0 26.6
Marc Gasol -0.7 +1.8 +1.2 2075 1.8 4.5
Al-Farouq Aminu -0.7 +1.9 +1.1 2007 2.7 10.0
Mike Conley +2.1 -1.0 +1.1 1523 2.4 6.1
Marcus Smart +0.2 +0.8 +1.0 2093 3.3 19.7
Nerlens Noel -2.1 +3.1 +1.0 1258 1.1 7.6
Spencer Dinwiddie +1.7 -0.7 +1.0 2022 3.0 17.1
Mason Plumlee -0.8 +1.8 +1.0 1610 1.5 5.6
Brice Johnson +0.2 +0.8 +1.0 84 0.1 0.8
Dwight Powell -0.6 +1.5 +0.9 1611 1.5 7.4
OG Anunoby +0.4 +0.5 +0.9 2057 2.9 27.5
David West -1.7 +2.7 +0.9 800 0.8 1.2
Andre Roberson -1.5 +2.4 +0.9 1663 2.4 10.8
Gary Harris +2.0 -1.0 +0.9 2388 3.7 22.1
DeMar DeRozan +2.4 -1.5 +0.9 2331 3.5 11.6
James Johnson -0.6 +1.4 +0.8 1740 2.1 6.1
Khris Middleton +1.3 -0.5 +0.8 2377 3.3 13.6
Hassan Whiteside -2.2 +2.9 +0.8 1675 1.4 6.0
Tobias Harris +1.2 -0.5 +0.7 2469 2.7 11.6
John Collins -0.5 +1.2 +0.7 2196 1.9 23.3
Trevor Ariza +0.0 +0.7 +0.7 2134 2.7 6.4
Davis Bertans +0.3 +0.4 +0.7 1277 1.5 8.2
Derrick Favors -0.9 +1.6 +0.7 1867 1.4 6.4
Jonas Valanciunas -0.4 +1.0 +0.7 1835 1.1 6.0
Kevon Looney -1.1 +1.7 +0.7 1174 1.1 8.6
Terry Rozier +1.0 -0.4 +0.7 1929 2.5 15.9
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope +1.1 -0.4 +0.6 2389 3.4 16.4
Greg Monroe -0.3 +0.9 +0.6 1478 1.1 4.0
Daniel Theis -1.3 +1.9 +0.6 1282 0.7 4.4
Salah Mejri -2.9 +3.5 +0.6 879 0.5 1.0
Jaylen Brown +0.4 +0.2 +0.6 2219 2.6 22.8
Zaza Pachulia -1.5 +2.0 +0.6 951 0.5 1.3
Klay Thompson +1.6 -1.1 +0.6 2376 3.2 11.6
Mohamed Bamba -1.8 +2.3 +0.6 1252 0.7 17.8
Andre Iguodala -0.6 +1.1 +0.5 1458 1.7 3.5
Dwight Howard -1.7 +2.2 +0.5 2072 1.0 3.0
Nene -1.8 +2.3 +0.5 767 0.5 1.1
Pascal Siakam -0.8 +1.2 +0.5 1640 1.4 9.6
Willy Hernangomez -0.8 +1.3 +0.5 1121 0.5 4.9
Marvin Williams +0.0 +0.4 +0.4 1760 1.7 4.5
Josh Richardson -0.2 +0.6 +0.4 2277 2.7 15.0
Dario Saric +0.7 -0.3 +0.4 2251 2.2 13.6
Jeremy Lamb +1.1 -0.7 +0.4 1819 2.3 10.2
Dewayne Dedmon -1.9 +2.3 +0.4 1505 0.7 3.3
Tomas Satoransky +0.4 +0.0 +0.4 1620 1.9 9.5
Jamal Murray +2.4 -2.0 +0.4 2373 2.9 26.2
Jeff Teague +1.3 -0.9 +0.4 2207 2.5 6.9
Thaddeus Young -1.1 +1.5 +0.4 2154 2.0 5.5
Brook Lopez -0.4 +0.8 +0.4 1728 0.7 2.7
Patrick Beverley +0.3 +0.1 +0.4 1454 1.7 4.3
Enes Kanter +0.6 -0.2 +0.3 1841 0.8 4.8
Julius Randle +0.4 -0.1 +0.3 2040 1.2 9.0
Bam Adebayo -1.2 +1.5 +0.3 1798 0.9 15.2
Montrezl Harrell +0.3 +0.0 +0.3 1409 0.8 6.0
Danilo Gallinari +0.4 -0.2 +0.3 1566 1.5 4.0
DeMarre Carroll -0.3 +0.5 +0.3 1773 1.7 4.5
CJ McCollum +2.1 -1.8 +0.3 2576 2.9 12.5
Nicolas Batum +0.5 -0.2 +0.2 2060 2.3 6.5
Andzejs Pasecniks -0.3 +0.5 +0.2 198 0.1 2.9
Elfrid Payton +0.9 -0.8 +0.2 2067 2.1 13.3
Willie Cauley-Stein -1.5 +1.6 +0.2 1908 0.6 6.2
Tim Hardaway Jr. +1.2 -1.1 +0.2 2057 2.3 9.9
George Hill +0.8 -0.7 +0.1 1620 1.7 4.3
Eric Gordon +1.5 -1.4 +0.1 2010 2.2 6.3
Eric Moreland -2.6 +2.7 +0.1 874 0.6 3.5
Nemanja Bjelica -0.7 +0.7 +0.1 1308 1.1 3.1
John Henson -2.1 +2.1 +0.1 1585 0.7 3.8
Cole Aldrich -2.1 +2.2 +0.1 488 0.1 1.0
David Lee -1.2 +1.2 +0.1 571 0.3 0.7
Maurice Harkless -0.6 +0.7 +0.1 1600 1.4 7.9
Jarrett Allen -1.6 +1.6 +0.0 1689 0.4 12.0
Will Barton +1.0 -1.0 +0.0 2190 2.2 9.0
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson -0.8 +0.8 +0.0 1931 1.6 11.2
Danny Green -1.4 +1.4 +0.0 1562 1.5 4.4
Richaun Holmes -0.8 +0.8 +0.0 1189 0.5 4.4
Darren Collison +1.4 -1.5 -0.1 1799 1.6 4.7
Royce O’Neale -1.1 +1.0 -0.1 1311 1.0 6.3
Thabo Sefolosha -1.8 +1.8 -0.1 997 0.9 1.9
Frank Kaminsky +0.4 -0.5 -0.1 1787 0.7 5.7
Patrick Patterson -0.6 +0.5 -0.1 1316 0.7 2.5
Justise Winslow -1.3 +1.1 -0.1 1832 1.4 12.4
Lou Williams +2.9 -3.1 -0.2 2061 1.9 5.2
Mike Muscala -0.8 +0.6 -0.2 1280 0.2 2.4
Channing Frye -0.3 +0.1 -0.2 690 0.3 0.6
Kris Dunn -0.6 +0.4 -0.2 1778 1.5 11.7
Tim Duncan -1.7 +1.5 -0.2 466 0.2 0.5
D’Angelo Russell +1.5 -1.7 -0.2 1834 1.6 15.5
Ed Davis -1.7 +1.5 -0.2 1231 0.4 1.9
Ersan Ilyasova -0.4 +0.2 -0.2 1576 0.8 2.5
Boban Marjanovic -1.6 +1.4 -0.2 449 0.0 0.8
Kent Bazemore -0.8 +0.5 -0.2 1740 1.6 5.2
Alex Len -1.7 +1.4 -0.2 1552 0.2 3.6
Goran Dragic +1.2 -1.4 -0.3 2000 1.6 4.7
Gorgui Dieng -1.7 +1.4 -0.3 1499 0.3 2.4
Tyler Johnson +0.2 -0.5 -0.3 1961 1.7 7.9
Josh Hart +0.5 -0.7 -0.3 1767 1.6 11.9
Chris Bosh -1.2 +0.9 -0.3 571 0.1 0.9
Rudy Gay -1.0 +0.7 -0.3 1202 0.7 2.0
Domantas Sabonis -1.0 +0.7 -0.3 1996 0.6 8.9
Robert Williams -1.7 +1.5 -0.3 538 0.0 6.3
Shaquille Harrison -0.4 +0.1 -0.3 881 0.7 5.0
Lauri Markkanen +0.1 -0.4 -0.3 2269 1.0 17.4
Trey Lyles -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1610 0.7 7.3
Serge Ibaka -1.1 +0.7 -0.3 1866 0.6 3.0
Tyson Chandler -2.2 +1.9 -0.3 928 0.0 0.4
PJ Tucker -1.1 +0.8 -0.3 1705 1.1 2.9
Jonathan Isaac -2.4 +2.1 -0.3 1296 0.7 13.1
Tyler Lydon -0.6 +0.3 -0.4 272 0.2 2.9
Devin Booker +2.0 -2.4 -0.4 2272 1.8 18.2
Guerschon Yabusele -0.7 +0.3 -0.4 657 0.3 3.5
Gary Clark -1.0 +0.6 -0.4 178 0.1 1.7
Malcolm Brogdon +0.7 -1.1 -0.4 1796 1.4 8.1
Jae Crowder -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 1911 1.1 4.5
Reggie Bullock +0.1 -0.6 -0.5 1495 1.1 5.0
Jared Sullinger -1.2 +0.8 -0.5 594 0.2 1.9
Khem Birch -1.4 +0.9 -0.5 889 0.1 1.9
Luke Kennard +0.2 -0.7 -0.5 1716 1.4 14.2
Jerian Grant +0.5 -1.0 -0.5 1577 1.1 6.9
Patty Mills +1.4 -1.9 -0.5 1755 1.2 3.5
Shabazz Napier +0.2 -0.6 -0.5 1319 1.0 4.6
Evan Fournier +1.0 -1.5 -0.5 2004 1.4 7.1
Anthony Tolliver +0.2 -0.7 -0.5 1254 0.4 1.3
Michael Carter-Williams -1.5 +0.9 -0.5 1088 0.7 3.9
Bobby Portis +0.2 -0.8 -0.5 1576 0.5 6.2
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist -1.3 +0.7 -0.5 1796 1.1 7.5
Ivica Zubac -1.9 +1.4 -0.5 960 -0.1 4.0
Buddy Hield +0.9 -1.4 -0.5 1926 1.4 9.8
Brandan Wright -1.6 +1.1 -0.6 534 0.1 0.7
Yogi Ferrell +0.2 -0.7 -0.6 1873 1.3 8.0
Luc Mbah a Moute -1.9 +1.4 -0.6 1371 0.6 1.8
Jevon Carter -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 550 0.3 6.2
Alan Williams -1.8 +1.2 -0.6 588 0.0 1.4
Ian Mahinmi -2.7 +2.1 -0.6 886 -0.1 0.5
Jabari Parker +0.4 -1.0 -0.6 1541 0.6 7.2
JaVale McGee -1.7 +1.1 -0.6 700 -0.1 0.5
Justin Holiday -0.7 +0.0 -0.6 1832 1.2 4.6
Caris LeVert -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 1801 0.9 7.9
Seth Curry +0.5 -1.1 -0.6 1187 0.8 3.4
Festus Ezeli -1.9 +1.2 -0.6 352 0.0 0.7
Marreese Speights -0.7 +0.0 -0.6 845 0.1 0.8
Denzel Valentine -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 1801 1.2 8.8
Stanley Johnson -1.3 +0.7 -0.6 1926 1.0 11.6
Wendell Carter Jr. -1.4 +0.7 -0.6 1215 -0.2 15.1
Derrick White -0.5 -0.2 -0.7 166 0.1 0.4
Dante Exum -0.1 -0.6 -0.7 1057 0.7 7.2
Taurean Prince -0.5 -0.1 -0.7 2009 1.1 8.7
Marcin Gortat -2.2 +1.6 -0.7 1639 -0.2 0.8
Jarred Vanderbilt -1.0 +0.3 -0.7 414 0.2 13.1
Meyers Leonard -1.0 +0.3 -0.7 854 -0.1 1.2
Luke Kornet -1.2 +0.6 -0.7 883 0.2 3.9
Kyle Kuzma +0.3 -1.0 -0.7 2319 0.5 8.4
Taj Gibson -1.3 +0.6 -0.7 1856 0.3 1.6
Markieff Morris -1.4 +0.6 -0.7 1731 0.4 2.4
Deandre Ayton -0.5 -0.2 -0.7 1742 -0.3 16.9
Marquese Chriss -1.4 +0.7 -0.8 1838 0.4 12.1
Devin Harris +0.2 -0.9 -0.8 966 0.5 1.3
Kelly Oubre Jr. -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 2026 0.9 9.6
Andrew Wiggins +0.8 -1.6 -0.8 2625 1.4 13.2
Ante Zizic -1.2 +0.4 -0.8 565 0.0 2.8
Ryan Anderson +0.4 -1.2 -0.8 1600 0.2 1.6
Brandon Ingram -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 2328 0.8 17.1
Mikal Bridges -0.9 +0.1 -0.8 1103 0.5 13.2
Kosta Koufos -2.3 +1.5 -0.8 1239 -0.1 1.2
Terrence Ross -0.6 -0.3 -0.8 1303 0.7 3.2
Kenrich Williams -0.8 +0.0 -0.9 162 0.0 1.1
Wesley Johnson -2.5 +1.7 -0.9 1085 0.5 1.5
Joakim Noah -2.6 +1.8 -0.9 348 -0.1 0.2
Emeka Okafor -2.7 +1.8 -0.9 313 -0.1 0.2
JJ Redick +1.4 -2.3 -0.9 1757 1.0 2.5
Solomon Hill -1.4 +0.5 -0.9 1011 0.4 2.4
Jaren Jackson Jr. -2.5 +1.7 -0.9 1456 -0.1 17.9
Harry Giles -1.0 +0.1 -0.9 270 0.0 3.5
Chris Johnson -1.8 +0.9 -0.9 335 -0.1 0.6
Trevor Booker -1.6 +0.7 -0.9 1146 0.1 1.0
Dennis Schroder +1.4 -2.4 -0.9 2091 0.9 6.7
Jared Dudley -1.3 +0.3 -1.0 814 0.2 0.8
Jeff Withey -2.4 +1.4 -1.0 393 -0.1 0.3
Austin Rivers +0.8 -1.8 -1.0 1973 0.9 5.4
Thon Maker -1.5 +0.5 -1.0 1390 -0.3 5.2
Ish Smith -0.2 -0.8 -1.0 1710 0.6 2.3
Willie Reed -1.7 +0.7 -1.0 702 0.0 0.9
Andrew Bogut -3.8 +2.8 -1.0 443 -0.2 0.2
Marcus Morris -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 1628 0.1 1.8
Darius Miller +0.6 -1.6 -1.1 1335 0.4 2.7
Dirk Nowitzki -1.6 +0.5 -1.1 1134 -0.2 0.4
Tyler Cavanaugh -0.6 -0.5 -1.1 880 0.0 2.0
Amar’e Stoudemire -2.1 +1.0 -1.1 312 0.0 0.2
Derrick Jones Jr. -1.1 +0.0 -1.1 789 0.1 2.9
Langston Galloway -0.1 -1.0 -1.1 1158 0.5 2.9
Wayne Ellington +0.7 -1.8 -1.1 1471 0.6 2.3
Andrew Harrison -0.5 -0.6 -1.1 1595 0.5 6.8
Juancho Hernangomez -0.5 -0.7 -1.1 881 0.0 3.3
Bonzie Colson -1.3 +0.1 -1.1 185 0.0 1.6
Spencer Hawes -2.0 +0.8 -1.2 569 -0.2 0.3
Omri Casspi -1.4 +0.3 -1.2 837 0.2 0.9
Isaiah Thomas +2.4 -3.6 -1.2 1515 0.4 2.1
Cory Joseph -0.3 -0.9 -1.2 1818 0.5 3.8
Kyle Korver -0.2 -1.0 -1.2 1053 0.4 1.2
Bogdan Bogdanovic +0.4 -1.6 -1.2 1989 0.7 5.5
Raul Neto -0.5 -0.7 -1.2 844 0.2 2.4
Justin Hamilton -1.9 +0.6 -1.2 703 -0.3 0.5
Allen Crabbe +0.4 -1.6 -1.2 1980 0.7 4.6
Alec Peters -0.9 -0.4 -1.2 654 0.0 2.3
CJ Miles +0.2 -1.4 -1.2 1157 0.3 1.4
Chris McCullough -1.2 +0.0 -1.2 406 0.0 1.9
Jerami Grant -1.2 -0.1 -1.2 1552 0.1 3.6
Dillon Brooks -0.7 -0.6 -1.2 2275 0.6 9.2
Jonas Jerebko -1.2 +0.0 -1.2 923 0.1 0.8
Harrison Barnes -0.2 -1.0 -1.2 2259 0.1 3.0
Tristan Thompson -1.3 +0.1 -1.3 1271 -0.4 1.1
Sam Dekker -1.0 -0.3 -1.3 1091 0.1 3.2
Mario Chalmers -1.1 -0.1 -1.3 972 0.2 0.9
Jeremy Lin -0.3 -1.0 -1.3 870 0.2 1.0
Ivan Rabb -1.1 -0.2 -1.3 990 -0.1 3.8
Jamil Wilson -1.1 -0.2 -1.3 603 0.0 1.4
Kenneth Faried -1.0 -0.3 -1.3 874 -0.1 0.8
Myke Henry -1.7 +0.4 -1.3 755 0.0 2.4
Cedi Osman -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 971 0.2 3.8
Cameron Payne -0.4 -0.9 -1.3 1077 0.2 4.0
Milos Teodosic -0.2 -1.2 -1.3 1081 0.3 1.5
T.J. McConnell -1.3 -0.1 -1.3 1602 0.3 3.6
Ray Spalding -2.1 +0.8 -1.3 261 0.0 2.7
Deron Williams +0.0 -1.3 -1.3 908 0.2 0.8
Reggie Jackson +0.7 -2.1 -1.4 1437 0.3 2.0
Donatas Motiejunas -1.9 +0.6 -1.4 480 -0.1 0.7
James Ennis III -1.0 -0.4 -1.4 1372 0.2 2.2
Aron Baynes -3.3 +1.9 -1.4 972 -0.3 0.4
Damion Lee -1.1 -0.3 -1.4 883 0.3 2.6
Zach LaVine +0.5 -1.9 -1.4 1562 0.4 6.1
Sindarius Thornwell -2.0 +0.6 -1.4 1286 0.4 5.4
Deyonta Davis -1.7 +0.3 -1.4 1100 -0.4 2.7
Darrell Arthur -1.7 +0.3 -1.4 487 -0.1 0.4
Rajon Rondo -1.0 -0.4 -1.4 1336 0.2 1.5
Dennis Smith Jr. +0.1 -1.5 -1.4 2269 0.4 14.2
Omari Spellman -1.6 +0.2 -1.4 452 -0.1 3.8
Kyle Collinsworth -1.6 +0.1 -1.4 733 0.1 1.7
Tyler Ennis -0.8 -0.6 -1.4 940 0.1 3.7
J.J. Barea +0.9 -2.3 -1.5 1206 0.2 1.1
Joe Harris +0.1 -1.6 -1.5 1525 0.4 3.5
Cheick Diallo -1.5 +0.0 -1.5 864 -0.2 2.1
Shane Larkin -0.6 -0.9 -1.5 898 0.1 2.3
Carmelo Anthony -0.2 -1.3 -1.5 1824 -0.1 1.1
Maxi Kleber -1.9 +0.5 -1.5 1225 -0.3 1.6
Jon Leuer -1.8 +0.4 -1.5 892 -0.2 0.7
Alex Abrines -0.1 -1.4 -1.5 1137 0.3 3.5
Thomas Robinson -1.8 +0.3 -1.5 560 -0.1 1.1
Mario Hezonja -1.0 -0.5 -1.5 1551 0.1 5.5
TJ Warren -0.1 -1.4 -1.5 1936 0.1 4.3
Mike James -0.1 -1.4 -1.5 910 0.1 1.5
Travis Wear -1.6 +0.1 -1.5 410 0.0 1.0
Glenn Robinson III -1.1 -0.4 -1.5 914 0.2 2.6
Henry Ellenson -1.5 -0.1 -1.5 707 -0.2 2.7
De’Anthony Melton -1.8 +0.3 -1.5 451 0.1 9.4
Troy Williams -1.6 +0.1 -1.5 801 0.0 2.7
Toney Douglas -0.8 -0.7 -1.5 431 0.0 0.5
Marvin Bagley III -0.7 -0.8 -1.5 1693 -0.7 15.2
Rodney McGruder -0.6 -1.0 -1.5 958 0.2 2.0
Dion Waiters -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 1413 0.3 2.3
Iman Shumpert -1.3 -0.2 -1.5 995 0.2 1.6
Noah Vonleh -2.3 +0.7 -1.6 1223 -0.3 2.8
Michael Beasley -1.1 -0.5 -1.6 1235 -0.2 0.9
Tarik Black -2.6 +1.1 -1.6 820 -0.3 1.0
Roy Hibbert -3.2 +1.7 -1.6 445 -0.3 0.1
Luke Babbitt -0.8 -0.8 -1.6 828 0.0 0.9
Trey Burke +1.2 -2.8 -1.6 1121 0.1 2.3
Shelvin Mack -0.4 -1.2 -1.6 1213 0.1 1.6
Luol Deng -2.1 +0.5 -1.6 630 0.0 0.4
Trae Young +0.2 -1.8 -1.6 1807 0.1 16.6
Zhaire Smith -1.2 -0.4 -1.6 920 0.0 15.3
James Michael McAdoo -2.0 +0.4 -1.6 394 -0.1 0.8
Wilson Chandler -1.0 -0.6 -1.6 1630 0.0 1.3
Skal Labissiere -1.7 +0.1 -1.6 1373 -0.4 3.2
Tony Snell -0.4 -1.2 -1.6 1768 0.1 2.8
Justin Patton -1.9 +0.3 -1.6 343 -0.2 1.4
E’Twaun Moore -0.3 -1.3 -1.6 1826 0.2 2.0
Adreian Payne -2.1 +0.5 -1.6 476 -0.1 0.8
Courtney Lee -0.4 -1.2 -1.7 1723 0.2 1.6
JaKarr Sampson -2.4 +0.7 -1.7 619 -0.1 1.2
Alexis Ajinca -3.2 +1.5 -1.7 456 -0.3 0.2
Tim Frazier -1.0 -0.7 -1.7 1016 0.1 1.7
JaMychal Green -1.4 -0.3 -1.7 1536 -0.5 1.2
Briante Weber -1.0 -0.7 -1.7 548 0.0 2.0
Terrence Jones -1.6 -0.1 -1.7 870 -0.3 0.9
Okaro White -1.6 -0.1 -1.7 511 -0.2 0.8
Tyler Zeller -2.3 +0.6 -1.7 937 -0.7 0.4
Rodney Hood +0.1 -1.8 -1.7 1599 0.2 3.2
Justin Anderson -0.9 -0.9 -1.7 924 0.0 2.4
Archie Goodwin -0.3 -1.4 -1.7 578 0.1 2.2
Anderson Varejao -2.9 +1.2 -1.7 347 -0.3 0.0
Bruce Brown Jr. -1.1 -0.6 -1.7 332 0.0 3.2
Pat Connaughton -0.4 -1.3 -1.7 1099 0.1 2.5
Alex Caruso -1.6 -0.2 -1.7 836 0.0 2.5
Ryan Kelly -2.0 +0.2 -1.7 290 0.0 0.8
D.J. Wilson -1.3 -0.5 -1.7 398 -0.1 1.3
Jordan Hill -2.0 +0.3 -1.8 283 -0.1 0.2
Chandler Parsons -1.1 -0.7 -1.8 879 -0.1 0.6
Garrett Temple -1.5 -0.3 -1.8 1253 0.0 0.9
Quincy Acy -1.4 -0.4 -1.8 1069 -0.3 1.0
Ron Baker -1.6 -0.3 -1.8 724 0.0 2.2
Tony Bradley -0.8 -1.0 -1.8 233 -0.2 1.0
Dragan Bender -1.9 +0.0 -1.8 2020 -0.8 10.2
D.J. Augustin +0.3 -2.1 -1.8 1255 -0.1 0.9
Damian Jones -1.8 -0.1 -1.9 59 0.0 0.1
Wesley Matthews -0.7 -1.1 -1.9 1789 -0.1 1.2
Markelle Fultz -1.3 -0.5 -1.9 990 0.0 13.7
Tyrone Wallace -1.5 -0.4 -1.9 1268 -0.1 3.1
Treveon Graham -1.0 -0.9 -1.9 945 0.0 2.3
Vince Carter -1.3 -0.6 -1.9 855 0.0 0.4
Jacob Evans -1.3 -0.6 -1.9 564 0.0 6.2
Jordan Mickey -2.1 +0.2 -1.9 537 -0.2 1.2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -1.1 -0.8 -1.9 1109 -0.1 14.0
Zach Collins -2.4 +0.5 -1.9 1473 -1.2 4.8
Jeff Green -1.2 -0.7 -1.9 1296 -0.4 0.5
Dwyane Wade -1.4 -0.6 -1.9 1162 0.0 0.4
Chandler Hutchison -0.9 -1.0 -1.9 539 -0.1 3.8
Corey Brewer -2.4 +0.5 -1.9 898 -0.1 0.5
O.J. Mayo -1.4 -0.6 -1.9 385 0.0 0.4
Nick Collison -2.0 +0.1 -2.0 358 -0.2 0.1
Chase Budinger -1.6 -0.3 -2.0 289 -0.1 0.4
Damyean Dotson -1.0 -0.9 -2.0 742 0.0 2.0
Mike Miller -1.8 -0.2 -2.0 395 -0.1 0.2
Josh Jackson -1.2 -0.8 -2.0 1884 -0.3 7.9
Matt Barnes -1.5 -0.5 -2.0 750 -0.2 0.3
Jordan Clarkson +0.2 -2.1 -2.0 1694 -0.2 2.2
Devonte’ Graham -0.4 -1.6 -2.0 413 -0.1 2.0
K.J. McDaniels -1.5 -0.5 -2.0 423 -0.1 1.3
Josh McRoberts -2.0 +0.0 -2.0 295 -0.1 0.2
Dorian Finney-Smith -2.0 +0.0 -2.0 980 -0.4 1.3
David Nwaba -1.4 -0.6 -2.0 1261 -0.1 2.3
Frank Mason -0.1 -1.9 -2.0 1160 -0.2 2.5
Carl Landry -1.9 -0.1 -2.0 300 -0.2 0.2
Ryan Arcidiacono -1.1 -0.9 -2.0 626 -0.1 1.9
Brandon Jennings -0.4 -1.6 -2.0 771 -0.1 0.6
Aaron Harrison -1.3 -0.7 -2.0 624 0.0 2.3
Malik Beasley -0.8 -1.2 -2.0 750 -0.1 2.8
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot -1.1 -0.9 -2.0 1144 -0.2 3.6
Robin Lopez -2.8 +0.8 -2.1 1472 -1.3 0.2
Josh Huestis -2.8 +0.7 -2.1 790 -0.3 0.6
Joffrey Lauvergne -1.8 -0.3 -2.1 771 -0.5 0.6
Andrea Bargnani -2.1 +0.0 -2.1 328 -0.2 0.0
Doral Moore -3.1 +1.0 -2.1 107 -0.1 0.4
Thomas Welsh -2.3 +0.2 -2.1 219 -0.2 0.7
DeAndre’ Bembry -2.2 +0.1 -2.1 762 -0.3 1.6
Alec Burks -1.1 -1.0 -2.1 944 -0.1 1.3
Manu Ginobili -1.7 -0.4 -2.1 776 -0.1 0.3
Isaiah Canaan -0.5 -1.6 -2.1 846 -0.2 1.1
Lavoy Allen -2.2 +0.1 -2.1 531 -0.3 0.3
JR Smith -0.7 -1.4 -2.1 1342 -0.2 0.7
Sterling Brown -1.9 -0.2 -2.1 1001 -0.1 3.3
Dante Cunningham -1.9 -0.2 -2.1 1134 -0.5 0.4
Donald Sloan -0.7 -1.4 -2.1 352 -0.1 0.4
Nik Stauskas -0.7 -1.4 -2.1 1059 -0.1 2.2
Frank Ntilikina -1.8 -0.3 -2.1 1839 -0.4 11.0
Damjan Rudez -1.6 -0.5 -2.1 335 -0.1 0.1
Mike Scott -1.1 -1.1 -2.1 931 -0.5 0.4
Al Jefferson -2.7 +0.6 -2.1 532 -0.5 0.1
Brandon Paul -2.1 +0.0 -2.1 627 -0.1 1.1
Gerald Green -0.9 -1.2 -2.1 806 -0.2 0.4
Ty Lawson -0.6 -1.6 -2.1 795 -0.2 0.3
Rashad Vaughn -1.2 -1.0 -2.1 659 -0.1 2.0
Michael Porter Jr. -1.9 -0.2 -2.1 887 -0.4 7.8
Bojan Bogdanovic -0.4 -1.7 -2.2 1770 -0.4 1.3
Miles Bridges -1.3 -0.9 -2.2 1010 -0.5 7.7
Malachi Richardson -1.1 -1.0 -2.2 685 -0.1 2.3
Danuel House -0.9 -1.3 -2.2 576 -0.1 1.4
Beno Udrih -0.6 -1.5 -2.2 435 -0.1 0.1
Isaiah Whitehead -1.4 -0.7 -2.2 899 -0.2 2.6
Tony Allen -2.7 +0.5 -2.2 513 -0.1 0.3
Norman Powell -1.2 -1.0 -2.2 1034 -0.2 1.9
Bismack Biyombo -3.2 +1.0 -2.2 1302 -1.3 0.6
Chris Andersen -3.3 +1.1 -2.2 312 -0.3 0.0
Alize Johnson -1.0 -1.2 -2.2 254 -0.2 1.1
Khyri Thomas -0.9 -1.3 -2.2 353 -0.1 2.6
Keita Bates-Diop -1.7 -0.5 -2.2 255 -0.2 1.1
Caleb Swanigan -0.7 -1.6 -2.2 218 -0.1 0.8
Avery Bradley -1.0 -1.3 -2.2 1558 -0.3 1.2
Luka Doncic -1.0 -1.2 -2.2 1271 -0.3 21.2
Theo Pinson -1.5 -0.7 -2.3 144 0.0 0.8
C.J. Williams -1.8 -0.5 -2.3 830 -0.2 0.9
Quinn Cook +0.1 -2.3 -2.3 882 -0.2 1.5
Tiago Splitter -2.4 +0.2 -2.3 255 -0.2 0.1
TJ Leaf -1.1 -1.2 -2.3 780 -0.5 1.8
Justin Jackson -1.4 -0.9 -2.3 1525 -0.6 3.5
Kevin Hervey -1.6 -0.7 -2.3 273 -0.1 1.8
Melvin Frazier -1.5 -0.8 -2.3 375 -0.1 2.5
Alonzo Gee -2.2 -0.1 -2.3 330 -0.1 0.2
Hollis Thompson -1.2 -1.1 -2.3 641 -0.3 0.6
Raymond Felton -1.2 -1.2 -2.3 1001 -0.3 0.4
Andrew Nicholson -2.3 +0.0 -2.3 363 -0.2 0.3
Jawun Evans -1.6 -0.7 -2.3 1115 -0.4 3.5
Isaac Bonga -1.7 -0.7 -2.3 166 -0.1 4.7
Donte DiVincenzo -0.8 -1.6 -2.3 701 -0.2 4.9
James Anderson -1.6 -0.8 -2.3 314 -0.1 0.5
Kevin Seraphin -2.6 +0.2 -2.3 424 -0.5 0.1
Jose Calderon -1.2 -1.1 -2.3 653 -0.2 0.3
Evan Turner -2.2 -0.2 -2.3 1503 -0.5 0.6
Rodions Kurucs -1.9 -0.5 -2.4 117 0.0 2.5
Marco Belinelli -0.1 -2.2 -2.4 1292 -0.3 0.6
Dzanan Musa -1.7 -0.6 -2.4 224 -0.1 5.9
Shaun Livingston -2.0 -0.3 -2.4 855 -0.3 0.4
DeAndre Liggins -2.6 +0.2 -2.4 680 -0.2 0.5
Jarell Martin -2.5 +0.1 -2.4 1274 -0.9 1.2
Wayne Selden -0.8 -1.6 -2.4 915 -0.2 1.9
Mirza Teletovic -1.2 -1.1 -2.4 466 -0.3 0.1
Johnny O’Bryant III -2.1 -0.2 -2.4 542 -0.4 0.7
Jahlil Okafor -2.5 +0.2 -2.4 898 -1.0 0.7
Isaiah Taylor -1.0 -1.4 -2.4 1000 -0.4 2.0
Mitchell Robinson -2.4 +0.1 -2.4 337 -0.4 1.7
Josh Okogie -1.3 -1.1 -2.4 823 -0.2 9.6
Elie Okobo -0.9 -1.5 -2.4 252 -0.1 3.2
P.J. Hairston -1.4 -1.0 -2.4 442 -0.1 1.1
Davon Reed -1.6 -0.8 -2.4 597 -0.2 2.5
Marcus Georges-Hunt -1.2 -1.2 -2.4 379 -0.1 1.3
Jarrett Jack -1.2 -1.2 -2.4 940 -0.4 0.4
Josh Magette -0.9 -1.5 -2.4 379 -0.2 0.8
Isaiah Hicks -2.1 -0.3 -2.4 532 -0.4 0.9
Jordan McRae -1.4 -1.1 -2.4 325 -0.2 0.4
Brandon Bass -2.0 -0.5 -2.4 361 -0.3 0.1
Dwight Buycks -1.4 -1.0 -2.4 449 -0.2 0.6
Kevin Garnett -2.3 -0.1 -2.4 436 -0.3 0.0
Grayson Allen -0.8 -1.6 -2.5 568 -0.2 2.9
Moritz Wagner -2.0 -0.4 -2.5 487 -0.6 1.7
Troy Brown -1.5 -0.9 -2.5 936 -0.3 12.9
Issuf Sanon -1.2 -1.3 -2.5 153 -0.1 3.6
Arnoldas Kulboka -2.0 -0.5 -2.5 60 0.0 1.5
Nick Young -0.3 -2.2 -2.5 902 -0.3 0.3
Omer Asik -3.5 +1.0 -2.5 386 -0.4 0.0
Jonathon Simmons -1.3 -1.2 -2.5 1452 -0.6 0.9
Chimezie Metu -2.8 +0.3 -2.5 296 -0.3 1.3
Norris Cole -1.1 -1.4 -2.5 314 -0.1 0.2
De’Aaron Fox -0.6 -2.0 -2.5 2198 -1.0 8.3
Kris Humphries -2.6 +0.0 -2.5 299 -0.2 0.1
Torrey Craig -1.6 -0.9 -2.6 723 -0.3 0.7
Luis Scola -1.8 -0.8 -2.6 376 -0.3 0.0
Jason Smith -3.0 +0.4 -2.6 451 -0.4 0.1
Sergio Rodriguez -0.8 -1.8 -2.6 583 -0.3 0.2
Charlie Villanueva -2.6 +0.0 -2.6 271 -0.2 0.1
Metta World Peace -2.3 -0.3 -2.6 456 -0.3 0.1
Doug McDermott -0.6 -2.0 -2.6 1377 -0.8 0.9
Monta Ellis -1.8 -0.8 -2.6 897 -0.4 0.3
Derrick Williams -1.7 -0.9 -2.6 483 -0.4 0.3
Bryn Forbes -0.4 -2.3 -2.7 1084 -0.5 1.5
Brandon Knight -0.4 -2.2 -2.7 757 -0.4 0.7
Vince Edwards -1.5 -1.2 -2.7 287 -0.2 1.2
Cristiano Felicio -2.3 -0.4 -2.7 965 -1.1 0.4
Ronnie Price -1.7 -1.0 -2.7 314 -0.2 0.0
Sasha Vujacic -2.1 -0.6 -2.7 301 -0.1 0.2
Lance Stephenson -1.0 -1.7 -2.7 1163 -0.6 0.7
Darrun Hilliard -1.8 -0.9 -2.7 378 -0.2 1.1
Markel Brown -1.4 -1.3 -2.7 306 -0.1 0.5
Kendrick Perkins -3.2 +0.5 -2.7 183 -0.2 0.0
Terrance Ferguson -1.2 -1.5 -2.8 1081 -0.5 2.7
James Jones -1.7 -1.1 -2.8 391 -0.3 0.1
Steve Blake -1.3 -1.5 -2.8 407 -0.2 0.2
Emmanuel Mudiay -0.7 -2.1 -2.8 1429 -0.9 3.1
Miles Plumlee -3.6 +0.8 -2.8 700 -0.8 0.1
Antonio Blakeney -1.2 -1.6 -2.8 677 -0.3 1.4
Wes Iwundu -2.7 -0.1 -2.8 1091 -0.7 2.0
Kay Felder -1.0 -1.8 -2.8 528 -0.3 2.1
Dakota Mathias -1.3 -1.5 -2.8 155 -0.1 0.6
Tyler Ulis -0.7 -2.1 -2.8 1487 -0.8 3.0
Devon Hall -1.2 -1.6 -2.8 217 -0.1 0.8
Matthew Dellavedova -1.0 -1.8 -2.8 1056 -0.6 0.7
Tyler Dorsey -0.4 -2.4 -2.8 1213 -0.6 2.2
Timofey Mozgov -3.7 +0.8 -2.8 512 -0.7 0.0
Mo Williams -1.1 -1.7 -2.9 334 -0.2 0.1
Kevin Martin -1.4 -1.4 -2.9 343 -0.2 0.1
Anthony Brown -1.5 -1.4 -2.9 440 -0.3 1.4
Joe Young -1.0 -1.9 -2.9 584 -0.4 0.8
Mike Dunleavy -1.5 -1.4 -2.9 425 -0.2 0.1
Rodney Stuckey -1.7 -1.2 -2.9 415 -0.2 0.2
Kyle Singler -2.4 -0.5 -2.9 300 -0.2 0.1
Jerryd Bayless -1.2 -1.7 -2.9 798 -0.5 0.3
Jodie Meeks -0.9 -2.0 -2.9 682 -0.4 0.3
Zach Randolph -1.5 -1.4 -2.9 1050 -1.1 0.1
Jamel Artis -1.9 -1.0 -2.9 518 -0.3 0.9
Jerome Robinson -1.2 -1.8 -2.9 886 -0.6 4.3
Malcolm Delaney -1.8 -1.2 -2.9 928 -0.6 0.4
Yante Maten -2.6 -0.4 -2.9 173 -0.2 0.6
Kobe Bryant -1.4 -1.6 -3.0 380 -0.2 0.1
Landry Shamet -0.9 -2.0 -3.0 501 -0.3 2.8
Kevin Huerter -1.5 -1.4 -3.0 793 -0.5 7.6
Patrick McCaw -1.9 -1.1 -3.0 1131 -0.7 2.2
Justin Jackson -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 256 -0.2 3.5
Alan Anderson -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 280 -0.2 0.0
Ben McLemore -1.6 -1.4 -3.0 1037 -0.6 1.0
Dwayne Bacon -2.6 -0.4 -3.0 910 -0.6 1.9
Boris Diaw -2.6 -0.4 -3.0 426 -0.4 0.0
Derrick Rose -0.8 -2.2 -3.0 883 -0.6 0.2
Anfernee Simons -1.7 -1.4 -3.0 698 -0.4 8.0
Shake Milton -1.6 -1.4 -3.1 279 -0.2 1.4
Ramon Sessions -1.7 -1.4 -3.1 546 -0.4 0.1
DJ Hogg -2.3 -0.7 -3.1 144 -0.1 0.5
Aaron Holiday -0.9 -2.2 -3.1 547 -0.4 2.2
Collin Sexton -0.6 -2.5 -3.1 1254 -1.0 8.3
Leandro Barbosa -1.4 -1.7 -3.1 348 -0.2 0.1
Marcus Thornton -1.4 -1.7 -3.1 401 -0.3 0.2
Ian Clark -1.0 -2.1 -3.2 1059 -0.7 0.6
Sean Kilpatrick -1.0 -2.1 -3.2 763 -0.5 0.4
Keenan Evans -1.6 -1.6 -3.2 188 -0.2 0.9
Troy Daniels +0.1 -3.4 -3.2 1136 -0.8 0.7
Jalen Brunson -0.9 -2.4 -3.2 415 -0.4 1.6
Brandon Rush -2.2 -1.0 -3.3 428 -0.3 0.1
Gerald Henderson -1.6 -1.6 -3.3 650 -0.5 0.2
Lance Thomas -2.5 -0.8 -3.3 879 -0.9 0.1
Anthony Morrow -1.5 -1.8 -3.3 311 -0.2 0.1
Joe Johnson -2.1 -1.2 -3.4 821 -0.7 0.2
Malik Monk -0.4 -2.9 -3.4 1313 -1.1 2.9
Josh Smith -2.8 -0.6 -3.4 296 -0.3 0.0
Jameer Nelson -1.3 -2.1 -3.4 701 -0.7 0.1
C.J. Watson -2.2 -1.2 -3.4 317 -0.3 0.1
Kirk Hinrich -1.7 -1.7 -3.4 316 -0.3 0.2
Lonnie Walker IV -1.6 -1.8 -3.4 749 -0.6 5.9
Nicolas Brussino -2.3 -1.1 -3.4 285 -0.2 1.1
MiKyle McIntosh -2.2 -1.3 -3.4 105 -0.1 0.2
Jason Terry -2.8 -0.7 -3.4 437 -0.4 0.0
Tony Carr -1.5 -2.0 -3.5 341 -0.3 1.8
Brian Roberts -1.7 -1.8 -3.5 299 -0.3 0.1
Shabazz Muhammad -0.9 -2.5 -3.5 727 -0.7 0.4
Randy Foye -2.4 -1.1 -3.5 426 -0.4 0.1
Tayshaun Prince -2.9 -0.6 -3.5 374 -0.4 0.1
Jaylen Barford -1.7 -1.8 -3.5 133 -0.1 0.4
George King -1.7 -1.8 -3.5 125 -0.1 0.2
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk -2.0 -1.6 -3.6 318 -0.3 1.7
Tony Parker -1.6 -2.0 -3.6 724 -0.8 0.0
Richard Jefferson -2.2 -1.5 -3.6 426 -0.5 0.0
Paul Zipser -3.1 -0.5 -3.6 798 -0.8 0.7
Rodney Purvis -1.9 -1.7 -3.6 504 -0.5 0.6
Pablo Prigioni -2.4 -1.3 -3.7 364 -0.4 0.0
Semaj Christon -2.0 -1.6 -3.7 516 -0.6 0.6
Marcelo Huertas -2.0 -1.7 -3.7 285 -0.3 0.0
Aaron Brooks -1.7 -2.0 -3.8 309 -0.4 0.1
Rawle Alkins -2.2 -1.5 -3.8 170 -0.2 1.0
Paul Pierce -3.4 -0.3 -3.8 305 -0.4 0.0
Isaac Haas -3.4 -0.4 -3.8 70 -0.1 0.0
Kevin Knox -2.1 -1.7 -3.8 1039 -1.4 4.8
Kostas Antetokounmpo -3.8 +0.0 -3.8 172 -0.2 1.1
Brandon McCoy -3.3 -0.5 -3.8 156 -0.3 0.4
Abdel Nader -3.2 -0.6 -3.9 525 -0.7 0.4
Gary Trent Jr. -2.2 -1.8 -4.0 474 -0.5 3.7
Semi Ojeleye -3.1 -0.9 -4.0 1008 -1.6 0.5
Andrew White III -2.7 -1.3 -4.0 420 -0.5 0.6
Hamidou Diallo -2.2 -1.9 -4.1 331 -0.4 1.8
Mindaugas Kuzminskas -2.8 -1.3 -4.1 268 -0.4 0.1
Gary Neal -2.3 -1.8 -4.1 273 -0.4 0.0
Malik Newman -1.8 -2.3 -4.1 147 -0.2 0.4
Trevon Duval -2.4 -1.8 -4.2 200 -0.3 1.4
Kobi Simmons -2.1 -2.1 -4.2 987 -1.4 0.6
Allonzo Trier -2.2 -2.3 -4.5 118 -0.2 0.2
Arron Afflalo -2.4 -2.2 -4.6 568 -0.9 0.0
Jamal Crawford -0.9 -4.0 -4.9 864 -1.4 0.0

* Upside is a measure of WAR where values lower than zero are treated as zero instead. That is, it doesn’t punish a player for being below replacement level, but does reward him for being above replacement level. The 7-year calculation reflects the 2018-19 through 2024-25 seasons.

Footnotes

  1. According to our RPM/BPM blend from above. Also, note that this calculation is weighted by their playing time. Part of the benefit of picking guys up off the waiver wire is that you can churn through them quickly, cutting bait with unproductive players at little expense but occasionally finding a hidden gem, which helps raise the weighted average for these types of players.

  2. For players who split their time across multiple positions, we use a blend of his positions to calculate replacement level.

  3. This higher replacement level also implies that there are a fair number of sub-replacement-level players who get regular playing time in the league. We think this makes sense too; a lot of these players are in their first or second NBA seasons, and the NBA is a tough league for rookies — but getting them regular playing time is important to their long-term development. Also, let’s be honest: a handful of NBA teams each season are tanking, and may deliberately employ counterproductive players.

  4. The adjusted college statistics provided to us by ESPN’s Stats & Information Group for our rookie projections are calculated for the top 100 draft prospects only, so we also use this method for rookies who fell outside the top 100 but who nonetheless require a projection.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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