The past week has been great for backyard barbecues, N.B.A. trade rumors and air-conditioner salesmen, but not for poll-watching. Monday was no exception. There was little data out apart from the national tracking polls, and they’ve been moving in opposite directions for the past few days. Our presidential forecast is essentially unchanged.
Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. @natesilver538