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July 30: Forecast Stays Steady With 99 Days to Go

We crossed the 100-day barrier over the weekend. Americans will decide on their next president on Nov. 6, 99 days from Monday.

Though there have been some interesting developments in polls at the state level, the overall condition of the race remains about the same. President Obama is clinging to a lead of about two points in the average of national surveys, with perhaps a slightly greater advantage in some key swing states.

The national tracking polls continue to be mediocre for Mr. Obama, but on the other hand, some surveys from polling firms that measure the race on a more occasional basis show stronger numbers for him. A Democracy Corps poll released on Monday, for instance, gave him a four-point lead over Mr. Romney nationally, tying Mr. Obama’s largest lead in that particular survey. We think that most of the apparent movement in national polls toward or against Mr. Obama in recent weeks likely reflects little more than statistical noise. According to our model, his chance of winning the Electoral College is 66.9 percent as of Monday, little changed from 67.4 percent on Saturday.

Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.


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