Tuesday is often a busy day for polling, but the volume was relatively light on the eve of the July 4 holiday. On the plus side for President Obama: a poll from a Republican-leaning firm that put him up by a point in Florida, and encouraging reports on factory orders and auto sales. Favoring Mr. Romney were a North Carolina poll that put him 5 points ahead, and national tracking polls that moved a point toward him. Overall, the FiveThirtyEight forecast was essentially unchanged, with Mr. Obama given a 68.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. @natesilver538