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ABC News
July 20: Little Change in Presidential Forecast

We’ll keep Friday’s presidential forecast update brief with the more pressing news in Colorado. National tracking polls moved toward President Obama, a set of state polls produced mixed but mostly unremarkable results, and the stock market was down on renewed investor concerns about Europe, lowering our economic index. Add it all up, and our model shows little change: Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College are 67.2 percent, versus 66.7 percent on Thursday.

Be a little careful with polls you see over the next few days. Tragic events can sometimes bolster support for the incumbent president because of a rally-around-the-flag effect, but the impact is usually short-lasting.

Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.


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