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ABC News
July 16: Obama Gains Ground From Ohio Poll

A series of surveys in swing states from the firm Purple Strategies shows relatively little change in the race since its last set of polls five weeks ago. But there is an exception in Ohio, where the poll now shows President Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by three points — rather than behind by three, as he was in the firm’s survey last month.

No one poll should be overinterpreted, but Purple Strategies had been one of the few firms to show Mr. Romney with a lead in Ohio, making this bad news for him. Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College are now listed at 68.7 percent by the forecast model, up from 67.0 percent on Saturday.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.


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