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July 13: Obama Forecast Buoyed by Stock Rally

No offense to the people of the Peace Garden State. But when the only survey out is one of North Dakota, as was the case on Friday — plus the national tracking polls, which moved in opposite directions — there just isn’t much polling news to worry about. There was, however, a substantial gain in the stock market, which recovered the ground it had lost this week. The Dow Jones was up more than 200 points as investors reacted to better-than-expected data out of China. The forecast for President Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College rose, to 67.7 percent, on the attendant gain in our model’s economic index.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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