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July 12: Some Noisy News, but Little Change in Forecast

Thursday was a slow polling day after two busy ones. The flashiest number — a Pew Research national poll showing a seven-point lead for President Obama — doesn’t much change our forecast. Pew had shown very good results for Mr. Obama so far this cycle.

Instead, Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College dropped incrementally — to 65.6 percent from 66.1 percent — on the decline in the stock market. This was despite a promising-looking report showing the number of initial unemployment claims decreasing to 350,000. Investors discounted the report because it was conducted over a holiday week, when the data is thought to be less reliable.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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