Skip to main content
Menu
Who’s The Best At Coaching In The NCAA Men’s Tournament?

Who’s the best at coaching in the NCAA men’s tournament? When we’ve looked at the question in the past, Michigan State’s Tom Izzo always stood out from the pack. Even if you include recent seasons — which have tarnished Izzo’s reputation a little with early losses to Syracuse, Kansas and Middle Tennessee — the Spartans’ coach still gets longer tournament runs out of his teams than we’d expect based on their talent.

But that’s just one way to define the tournament’s top coaching performances. Another approach is to simply look at how often you won the games at hand, regardless of the big-picture focus on how deep you made it each year. And by that standard, the NCAA tourney’s most impressive modern coach might be the guy who outdueled Izzo last Sunday — Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim.

Boeheim is best known for his iconic zone defense and irascible demeanor (particularly with the media), plus the national championship he won with Carmelo Anthony in 2003 — the only title in his 40-plus-year head coaching career. But the numbers say that Boeheim should have more of an Izzo-like reputation for coaxing impressive performances out of the teams he’s had to work with.

In short, he’s won a lot more games than the odds say he should have. To measure just how many of those each coach has racked up going back to 1985 (the start of the 64-team tournament era), we used our Elo ratings to generate pregame win probabilities for each tournament game.1 The coaches with the biggest differentials between their actual and expected tournament wins are the ones who have the strongest March Madness resumes — and sure enough, Boeheim shows up at No. 1:

Boeheim wins the games he shouldn’t

Wins above expected in the NCAA tournament (based on pregame Elo probabilities) for NCAA men’s basketball coaches, 1985-2018


Coach
Avg. Seed
Current Team
W
L
Exp. Wins
Wins Over Expected
1 Jim Boeheim 4.3 Syracuse 54 25 44.3 +9.7
2 Tom Izzo 4.9 Michigan St. 48 20 38.8 +9.2
3 Roy Williams 2.7 North Carolina 77 25 68.1 +8.9
4 John Calipari 3.0 Kentucky 53 17 46.1 +6.9
5 Jim Calhoun 4.5 48 17 41.3 +6.7
6 Rollie Massimino 9.0 11 4 4.7 +6.3
7 Mike Krzyzewski 2.2 Duke 93 27 87.2 +5.8
8 Rick Pitino 3.6 54 18 48.5 +5.5
9 John Beilein 7.4 Michigan 20 11 15.0 +5.0
10 Rick Majerus 6.2 19 12 14.0 +5.0
11 Billy Donovan 4.1 35 12 30.6 +4.4
12 Brad Stevens 7.0 12 5 7.6 +4.4
13 Denny Crum 5.6 21 11 16.7 +4.3
14 Thomas Penders 9.6 12 11 8.2 +3.8
15 Frank Martin 6.6 South Carolina 10 5 6.2 +3.8
16 Kevin Ollie 8.0 Connecticut 7 1 3.2 +3.8
17 John Chaney 7.2 22 16 18.3 +3.7
18 Nolan Richardson 5.5 26 13 22.3 +3.7
19 Larry Brown 4.2 13 4 9.7 +3.3
20 Gary Williams 5.4 28 15 24.8 +3.2
21 Dale Brown 8.1 9 9 5.8 +3.2
22 Bill Frieder 4.4 14 6 11.2 +2.8
23 P.J. Carlesimo 5.0 12 6 9.3 +2.7
24 Steve Lavin 5.8 11 8 8.4 +2.6
25 Sonny Smith 9.4 7 5 4.4 +2.6
26 Pete Gillen 10.4 8 9 5.5 +2.5
27 Jerry Tarkanian 4.1 22 8 19.6 +2.4
28 Chris Mack 6.0 Xavier 11 7 8.6 +2.4
29 Bo Ryan 5.2 27 15 24.6 +2.4
30 Todd Lickliter 8.5 4 2 1.7 +2.3
31 Sean Miller 5.1 Arizona 19 11 16.7 +2.3
32 Tubby Smith 5.8 Memphis 30 17 27.8 +2.2
33 Mike Davis 9.9 Texas Southern 7 7 4.8 +2.2
34 Jim Larranaga 8.7 Miami (FL) 9 9 6.8 +2.2
35 Jim O’Brien 5.9 11 7 8.9 +2.1
36 Clem Haskins 6.7 11 7 9.0 +2.0
37 Quin Snyder 9.0 5 4 3.0 +2.0
38 Andy Enfield 11.3 Southern California 3 3 1.0 +2.0
39 Mike Anderson 8.1 Arkansas 9 9 7.0 +2.0
40 Tommy Amaker 12.2 Harvard 4 5 2.0 +2.0
41 John Groce 11.3 Akron 4 3 2.1 +1.9
42 Lou Campanelli 7.5 3 2 1.1 +1.9
43 Dean Smith 2.6 37 12 35.1 +1.9
44 Richard Williams 5.0 6 3 4.1 +1.9
45 Paul Westhead 11.0 4 3 2.2 +1.8
46 Tom Davis 5.6 13 9 11.2 +1.8
47 Billy Kennedy 9.5 Texas A&M 5 3 3.2 +1.8
48 Ben Howland 5.5 Mississippi St. 19 10 17.3 +1.7
49 Bill Guthridge 4.0 8 3 6.3 +1.7
50 Dick Tarrant 13.3 3 4 1.4 +1.6
51 Cliff Ellis 8.5 Coastal Carolina 8 8 6.4 +1.6
52 Mark Few 6.3 Gonzaga 28 18 26.5 +1.5
53 Larry Finch 6.8 6 6 4.5 +1.5
54 Lou Carnesecca 5.1 10 7 8.5 +1.5
55 Ron Abegglen 14.0 2 2 0.5 +1.5
56 Jim Les 14.5 California-Davis 2 2 0.6 +1.4
57 Jim Brandenburg 12.0 2 1 0.6 +1.4
58 Jim Valvano 5.6 8 5 6.6 +1.4
59 Jim Rosborough 2.0 5 1 3.6 +1.4
60 Eddie Sutton 5.1 28 17 26.6 +1.4
61 Paul Hewitt 8.2 7 6 5.7 +1.3
62 Pat Flannery 11.5 2 2 0.7 +1.3
63 John Giannini 13.0 La Salle 2 1 0.7 +1.3
64 Ben Braun 8.8 7 8 5.8 +1.2
65 Archie Miller 9.0 Indiana 4 4 2.8 +1.2
66 Johnny Dawkins 10.0 Central Florida 2 1 0.8 +1.2
67 Mark Gottfried 8.9 9 11 7.8 +1.2
68 Porter Moser 11.0 Loyola (IL) 2 0 0.8 +1.2
69 Trent Johnson 8.0 5 5 3.8 +1.2
70 Jim Harrick 6.8 17 13 15.8 +1.2
71 Wimp Sanderson 5.1 11 7 9.8 +1.2
72 Chris Beard 7.5 Texas Tech 3 1 1.9 +1.1
73 Dick Davey 12.3 2 3 0.9 +1.1
74 Steve Donahue 14.0 Pennsylvania 2 4 0.9 +1.1
75 Russ Pennell 12.0 Central Arkansas 2 1 0.9 +1.1
76 Tim Floyd 7.6 Texas-El Paso 7 8 5.9 +1.1
77 Eric Musselman 9.5 Nevada 2 1 0.9 +1.1
78 Mack McCarthy 14.0 2 5 0.9 +1.1
79 Kevin Mackey 14.0 2 1 0.9 +1.1
80 Dick Hunsaker 13.5 2 2 0.9 +1.1
81 Dick Bennett 9.7 5 6 3.9 +1.1
82 Gregg Marshall 10.2 Wichita St. 10 13 9.0 +1.0
83 Henry Bibby 7.0 3 3 2.0 +1.0
84 Fran McCaffery 11.6 Iowa 4 7 3.0 +1.0
85 Greg Gard 8.0 Wisconsin 2 1 1.0 +1.0
86 Larry Krystkowiak 9.0 Utah 4 4 3.0 +1.0
87 Bob Donewald 10.0 2 2 1.0 +1.0
88 Shaka Smart 8.0 Texas 6 7 5.0 +1.0
89 Anthony Evans 15.0 Florida International 1 1 0.1 +0.9
90 Don Haskins 9.1 5 7 4.1 +0.9
91 Homer Drew 14.0 2 7 1.1 +0.9
92 Chris Holtmann 6.0 Ohio St. 5 4 4.1 +0.9
93 Joe B. Hall 12.0 2 1 1.1 +0.9
94 Darrin Horn 12.0 2 1 1.1 +0.9
95 Perry Clark 8.8 3 4 2.1 +0.9
96 Lefty Driesell 8.8 4 4 3.2 +0.8
97 Ryan Odom 16.0 Maryland-Baltimore County 1 1 0.2 +0.8
98 Jay Wright 5.6 Villanova 23 13 22.2 +0.8
99 Lake Kelly 14.0 1 1 0.2 +0.8
100 Steve Fisher 6.5 20 14 19.2 +0.8
101 Bob Hoffman 14.0 Mercer 1 1 0.2 +0.8
102 Eldon Miller 9.0 2 2 1.2 +0.8
103 David Hobbs 7.0 2 2 1.2 +0.8
104 Jim O’Brien 12.0 1 1 0.3 +0.7
105 Matt Painter 6.0 Purdue 12 10 11.3 +0.7
106 Dan D’Antoni 13.0 Marshall 1 1 0.3 +0.7
107 Buzz Williams 6.6 Virginia Tech 8 7 7.3 +0.7
108 Dana Altman 8.1 Oregon 13 13 12.3 +0.7
109 Dan Hurley 9.0 Rhode Island 2 2 1.3 +0.7
110 Mark Turgeon 6.5 Maryland 8 8 7.3 +0.7
111 Tom Brennan 14.7 1 3 0.3 +0.7
112 Steve Merfeld 15.0 1 2 0.3 +0.7
113 Thad Matta 4.7 24 13 23.3 +0.7
114 John Phillips 12.5 2 2 1.3 +0.7
115 Fang Mitchell 15.0 1 3 0.3 +0.7
116 Gene Sullivan 4.0 2 1 1.3 +0.7
117 Jerod Haase 14.0 Stanford 1 1 0.3 +0.7
118 Bill Grier 13.0 1 1 0.3 +0.7
119 Ray Giacoletti 10.5 2 2 1.3 +0.7
120 Bob Bender 10.7 2 3 1.3 +0.7
121 Perry Watson 11.0 2 2 1.4 +0.6
122 Craig Esherick 10.0 2 1 1.4 +0.6
123 Tom Crean 5.4 11 9 10.4 +0.6
124 Steve McClain 11.0 Illinois-Chicago 1 1 0.4 +0.6
125 Mike McConathy 14.7 Northwestern St. 1 3 0.4 +0.6
126 Donnie Tyndall 14.5 1 2 0.4 +0.6
127 Jeff Capel 7.0 4 3 3.4 +0.6
128 Michael White 5.0 Florida 4 2 3.4 +0.6
129 Dan Monson 10.0 Long Beach St. 3 3 2.4 +0.6
130 Ben Jobe 14.5 1 4 0.5 +0.5
131 Bruce Pearl 6.8 Auburn 11 9 10.5 +0.5
132 Stu Jackson 9.0 1 1 0.5 +0.5
133 Mike Newell 14.3 1 3 0.5 +0.5
134 Eran Ganot 13.0 Hawaii 1 1 0.5 +0.5
135 Rob Jeter 13.0 1 2 0.5 +0.5
136 Melvin Watkins 7.5 2 2 1.5 +0.5
137 Lon Kruger 6.6 Oklahoma 20 18 19.5 +0.5
138 Avery Johnson 9.0 Alabama 1 1 0.5 +0.5
139 Brett Reed 15.5 Lehigh 1 2 0.5 +0.5
140 Kevin O’Neill 9.3 2 3 1.5 +0.5
141 Norm Sloan 6.3 3 3 2.5 +0.5
142 Steve Alford 6.1 UCLA 11 10 10.5 +0.5
143 Kermit Davis 13.3 Middle Tennessee 2 4 1.5 +0.5
144 Ken McDonald 14.0 1 2 0.5 +0.5
145 Wayne Morgan 9.0 1 1 0.5 +0.5
146 Nate Oats 13.5 Buffalo 1 2 0.5 +0.5
147 Chris Collins 8.0 Northwestern 1 1 0.5 +0.5
148 Ron Hunter 15.0 Georgia St. 1 3 0.6 +0.4
149 Jerry Wainwright 13.0 1 3 0.6 +0.4
150 Gary Waters 12.3 2 3 1.6 +0.4
151 Charlie Coles 12.5 2 4 1.6 +0.4
152 Jay Smith 11.0 1 1 0.6 +0.4
153 Bob Thomason 12.2 2 5 1.6 +0.4
154 Jeff Capel 14.7 1 3 0.6 +0.4
155 Steve Newton 14.3 1 3 0.6 +0.4
156 Jeff Jones 8.9 Old Dominion 6 7 5.6 +0.4
157 John Pelphrey 11.5 1 2 0.6 +0.4
158 Tom Young 8.0 1 1 0.6 +0.4
159 Tommy Joe Eagles 11.5 1 2 0.6 +0.4
160 Bruce Stewart 13.3 1 3 0.7 +0.3
161 Royce Waltman 12.5 1 2 0.7 +0.3
162 Ben Jacobson 9.3 Northern Iowa 4 4 3.7 +0.3
163 Bill C. Foster 9.0 1 1 0.7 +0.3
164 Murray Arnold 10.0 1 1 0.7 +0.3
165 Herb Sendek 8.4 Santa Clara 7 8 6.7 +0.3
166 Jerry Dunn 6.0 2 2 1.7 +0.3
167 Bobby Gonzalez 13.0 1 2 0.7 +0.3
168 Bruce Parkhill 13.0 1 1 0.7 +0.3
169 Joey Meyer 8.0 6 7 5.7 +0.3
170 Phil Martelli 7.1 Saint Joseph’s 7 7 6.7 +0.3
171 Jerry Pimm 9.5 1 2 0.7 +0.3
172 Dave Leitao 5.5 DePaul 2 2 1.7 +0.3
173 Matt Kilcullen 8.0 1 1 0.8 +0.2
174 C.M. Newton 7.5 2 2 1.8 +0.2
175 Ricardo Patton 9.5 1 2 0.8 +0.2
176 Ralph Willard 12.7 2 6 1.8 +0.2
177 James Dickey 7.5 2 2 1.8 +0.2
178 Jim Killingsworth 4.0 1 1 0.8 +0.2
179 Dave Bliss 7.1 6 9 5.8 +0.2
180 LaVall Jordan 10.0 Butler 1 1 0.8 +0.2
181 Tiny Grant 10.0 1 2 0.8 +0.2
182 Jan Van Breda Kolff 10.5 1 2 0.8 +0.2
183 Andy Russo 8.5 2 2 1.8 +0.2
184 Brad Underwood 12.0 Illinois 2 4 1.9 +0.1
185 Chris Lowery 7.3 3 3 2.9 +0.1
186 Bill Herrion 12.7 New Hampshire 1 3 0.9 +0.1
187 Brian Gregory 10.5 South Florida 1 2 0.9 +0.1
188 Bill Self 2.7 Kansas 45 18 44.9 +0.1
189 Saul Phillips 13.0 Ohio 1 2 0.9 +0.1
190 Gale Catlett 9.0 3 5 2.9 +0.1
191 James Jones 12.0 Yale 1 1 0.9 +0.1
192 Steve Prohm 5.0 Iowa St. 4 3 3.9 +0.1
193 Dick Versace 7.0 1 1 0.9 +0.1
194 Marty Fletcher 12.0 1 2 0.9 +0.1
195 Ladell Andersen 7.0 1 2 0.9 +0.1
196 Alan LeForce 12.0 1 2 1.0 +0.0
197 Bob Wade 7.0 1 1 1.0 +0.0
198 Lorenzo Romar 6.4 8 7 8.0 +0.0
199 Mike Jarvis 9.7 7 9 7.0 +0.0
200 Tony Barone 12.5 1 2 1.0 +0.0
201 Dana Kirk 2.5 5 2 5.0 +0.0
202 Fred Hoiberg 6.0 4 4 4.0 +0.0
203 Mickey Clayton 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
204 Billy Lee 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
205 Elwood Plummer 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
206 James Green 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
207 Roy Thomas 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
208 Paul Cormier 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
209 Mike Gillespie 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
210 Butch Beard 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
211 Eddie Payne 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
212 Jamion Christian 16.0 Mount St. Mary’s 0 1 0.0 +0.0
213 Ron Bradley 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
214 Brooks Thompson 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
215 George Ivory 16.0 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 0 1 0.0 +0.0
216 Mike Cingiser 15.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
217 Tom Schneider 16.0 0 2 0.0 +0.0
218 Steve Welch 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
219 Roman Banks 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
220 Jeff Meyer 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
221 Rob Lanier 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
222 Greg Jackson 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
223 Milan Brown 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
224 Mike Miller 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
225 Matt Furjanic 15.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
226 Andy Stoglin 16.0 0 2 0.0 +0.0
227 Patrick Chambers 16.0 Penn St. 0 1 0.0 +0.0
228 Scott Cross 16.0 Texas-Arlington 0 1 0.0 +0.0
229 Brad Greenberg 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
230 Ralph Underhill 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
231 Jim Phelan 16.0 0 2 0.0 +0.0
232 John Brady 5.5 6 4 6.0 +0.0
233 Mike Dement 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
234 Joe Callero 16.0 Cal Poly 0 1 0.0 +0.0
235 Neil McCarthy 8.8 3 5 3.0 +0.0
236 Craig Littlepage 15.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
237 Sidney Green 15.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
238 Mike Jones 16.0 Radford 0 1 0.0 +0.0
239 Jim Boutin 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
240 Kevin Broadus 15.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
241 Nick McDevitt 15.0 North Carolina-Asheville 0 1 0.0 +0.0
242 Eddie Burke 15.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
243 Dereck Whittenburg 15.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
244 Tim Carter 16.0 0 2 0.0 +0.0
245 Rob Spivery 16.0 0 3 0.0 +0.0
246 Phil Hopkins 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
247 Davey Whitney 15.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
248 Bob Reinhart 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
249 Randy Dunton 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
250 Jack Bruen 16.0 0 2 0.0 +0.0
251 Andrew Toole 16.0 Robert Morris 0 1 0.0 +0.0
252 Don Holst 15.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
253 Bobby Hussey 16.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
254 Brian Jones 15.0 North Dakota 0 1 0.0 +0.0
255 Russ Bergman 15.5 0 2 0.0 +0.0
256 Edward Joyner 16.0 Hampton 0 3 0.0 +0.0
257 Dedrique Taylor 15.0 Cal St. Fullerton 0 1 0.0 +0.0
258 Terry Truax 16.0 0 2 0.0 +0.0
259 Tom Conrad 15.0 0 1 0.0 +0.0
260 Jimmy Patsos 15.0 Siena 0 1 0.1 -0.1
261 Kevin Bannon 15.5 0 2 0.1 -0.1
262 John Brannen 15.0 Northern Kentucky 0 1 0.1 -0.1
263 B.J. Hill 15.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
264 Randy Monroe 15.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
265 Bill Evans 14.0 Idaho St. 0 1 0.1 -0.1
266 David Richman 15.0 North Dakota St. 0 1 0.1 -0.1
267 Matt Brady 16.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
268 Stu Starner 16.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
269 Bill Bibb 15.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
270 Dave Calloway 15.7 0 3 0.1 -0.1
271 Phil Cunningham 15.0 Troy 0 1 0.1 -0.1
272 Bob Burton 14.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
273 Rob Senderoff 14.0 Kent St. 0 1 0.1 -0.1
274 Gary Garner 13.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
275 Ken Burmeister 14.0 Incarnate Word 0 1 0.1 -0.1
276 Bill Coen 14.0 Northeastern 0 1 0.1 -0.1
277 Dino Gaudio 6.5 1 2 1.1 -0.1
278 Greg Graham 14.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
279 Ray Harper 15.5 Jacksonville St. 0 2 0.1 -0.1
280 Dave Magarity 14.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
281 John Shulman 15.5 0 2 0.1 -0.1
282 Mike Brennan 15.0 American 0 1 0.1 -0.1
283 Casey Alexander 15.0 Lipscomb 0 1 0.1 -0.1
284 Carroll Williams 15.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
285 Frankie Allen 14.5 0 2 0.1 -0.1
286 Chris Mooney 9.5 Richmond 2 2 2.1 -0.1
287 Steve Pikiell 13.0 Rutgers 0 1 0.1 -0.1
288 Jimmy Gales 15.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
289 Charles Woollum 15.5 0 2 0.1 -0.1
290 Travis DeCuire 14.0 Montana 0 1 0.1 -0.1
291 Lafayette Stribling 15.7 0 3 0.1 -0.1
292 Steve Masiello 13.0 Manhattan 0 1 0.1 -0.1
293 Jim Wooldridge 15.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
294 Pete Carril 12.2 1 5 1.1 -0.1
295 Bob McKillop 12.7 Davidson 3 9 3.1 -0.1
296 Wayne Szoke 13.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
297 Nick Macarchuk 14.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
298 Jarrett Durham 15.7 0 3 0.1 -0.1
299 Ernie Nestor 15.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
300 Rob Chavez 14.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
301 Rickey Broussard 14.5 0 2 0.1 -0.1
302 Buzz Peterson 14.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
303 Frank Kerns 15.0 0 2 0.1 -0.1
304 Matt McCall 12.0 Massachusetts 0 1 0.1 -0.1
305 Kirk Speraw 15.3 0 4 0.1 -0.1
306 Mike Adras 15.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
307 Mitch Buonaguro 14.5 0 2 0.1 -0.1
308 Dale Layer 14.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
309 John Dunne 14.0 Saint Peter’s 0 1 0.1 -0.1
310 Wes Miller 13.0 North Carolina-Greensboro 0 1 0.1 -0.1
311 Will Wade 10.0 Louisiana St. 1 2 1.1 -0.1
312 Jim Ferry 15.5 0 2 0.1 -0.1
313 Danny Kaspar 14.0 Texas St. 0 1 0.1 -0.1
314 Sydney Johnson 13.0 Fairfield 0 1 0.1 -0.1
315 Paul Weir 14.0 New Mexico 0 1 0.1 -0.1
316 Al Brown 14.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
317 Glen Miller 14.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
318 Monte Ross 13.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
319 Leonard Hamilton 6.4 Florida St. 9 8 9.1 -0.1
320 Tim O’Shea 13.0 Bryant 0 1 0.1 -0.1
321 Cy Alexander 15.5 0 6 0.1 -0.1
322 Rick Samuels 15.0 0 2 0.1 -0.1
323 Eddie Biedenbach 16.0 0 3 0.1 -0.1
324 Ray Haskins 13.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
325 Ronnie Arrow 12.3 1 4 1.1 -0.1
326 Robert Hopkins 16.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
327 Tom Green 15.8 0 4 0.1 -0.1
328 Don Maestri 14.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
329 Philip Mathews 14.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
330 LeVelle Moton 14.0 North Carolina Central 0 1 0.1 -0.1
331 Jeff Neubauer 15.5 Fordham 0 2 0.1 -0.1
332 Jim Boyle 6.0 1 1 1.1 -0.1
333 Robert Lee 13.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
334 Pat Kelsey 13.0 Winthrop 0 1 0.1 -0.1
335 Kevin Stallings 6.3 Pittsburgh 6 8 6.1 -0.1
336 Randy Rahe 15.3 Weber St. 0 3 0.1 -0.1
337 Dickey Nutt 15.0 0 1 0.1 -0.1
338 Bobby Braswell 14.0 0 2 0.1 -0.1
339 Kyle Keller 14.0 Stephen F. Austin 0 1 0.1 -0.1
340 Mike Rice 15.0 0 2 0.1 -0.1
341 Linc Darner 14.0 Green Bay 0 1 0.1 -0.1
342 Fran O’Hanlon 15.3 Lafayette 0 3 0.1 -0.1
343 Joe Mihalich 15.0 Hofstra 0 2 0.1 -0.1
344 Steve Forbes 13.0 East Tennessee St. 0 1 0.1 -0.1
345 Greg Lansing 14.0 Indiana St. 0 1 0.2 -0.2
346 Larry Reynolds 12.0 0 1 0.2 -0.2
347 Rod Barnes 9.0 Cal St. Bakersfield 3 4 3.2 -0.2
348 Charles Spoonhour 10.9 3 8 3.2 -0.2
349 Jimmy Tillette 13.5 0 2 0.2 -0.2
350 Shelby Metcalf 12.0 0 1 0.2 -0.2
351 Louis Orr 9.0 1 2 1.2 -0.2
352 Brian Hammel 14.0 0 1 0.2 -0.2
353 Joe Dooley 15.0 Florida Gulf Coast 0 2 0.2 -0.2
354 Randy Bennett 9.2 Saint Mary’s (CA) 3 6 3.2 -0.2
355 Bob Williams 14.7 0 3 0.2 -0.2
356 Scott Edgar 14.5 0 2 0.2 -0.2
357 Howie Dickenman 15.0 0 3 0.2 -0.2
358 Reggie Theus 13.0 Cal St. Northridge 0 1 0.2 -0.2
359 Lynn Archibald 14.0 0 1 0.2 -0.2
360 Russ Turner 13.0 California-Irvine 0 1 0.2 -0.2
361 Robert Moreland 14.7 0 3 0.2 -0.2
362 Gene Smithson 11.0 0 1 0.2 -0.2
363 Randy Peele 14.0 0 2 0.2 -0.2
364 Jim Hayford 13.0 Seattle 0 1 0.2 -0.2
365 Jeff Bzdelik 13.0 0 1 0.2 -0.2
366 Don Corbett 15.3 0 4 0.2 -0.2
367 Danny Manning 13.0 Wake Forest 0 1 0.2 -0.2
368 Larry Eustachy 6.8 Colorado St. 4 5 4.2 -0.2
369 Ernie Kent 7.2 Washington St. 6 6 6.2 -0.2
370 Milton Barnes 13.0 0 1 0.2 -0.2
371 Mick Durham 13.0 0 1 0.2 -0.2
372 Rodney Terry 14.0 Fresno St. 0 1 0.2 -0.2
373 Dan Fitzgerald 14.0 0 1 0.2 -0.2
374 Ken Bone 14.5 0 2 0.2 -0.2
375 George Blaney 13.0 0 1 0.2 -0.2
376 Larry Shyatt 12.0 0 1 0.2 -0.2
377 Bruce Weber 7.6 Kansas St. 13 11 13.2 -0.2
378 Smokey Gaines 13.0 0 1 0.2 -0.2
379 Brad Holland 13.0 0 1 0.2 -0.2
380 Matt McMahon 12.0 Murray St. 0 1 0.2 -0.2
381 Pat Kennedy 7.3 6 7 6.2 -0.2
382 Brian Mahoney 5.0 1 1 1.2 -0.2
383 Sonny Allen 14.0 0 1 0.2 -0.2
384 Roy Chipman 12.0 0 1 0.2 -0.2
385 Bob Weltlich 14.0 0 2 0.2 -0.2
386 Steve Steinwedel 13.0 0 2 0.2 -0.2
387 Ritchie McKay 12.0 Liberty 0 1 0.2 -0.2
388 Fran Fraschilla 10.3 1 3 1.2 -0.2
389 Bobby Paschal 13.0 0 2 0.3 -0.3
390 Dennis Wolff 14.0 0 2 0.3 -0.3
391 Derek Kellogg 6.0 Long Island University 0 1 0.3 -0.3
392 Joe Cravens 12.0 0 1 0.3 -0.3
393 Hank Egan 9.0 0 1 0.3 -0.3
394 Karl Fogel 15.0 0 2 0.3 -0.3
395 Bob Marlin 14.3 Louisiana 0 3 0.3 -0.3
396 John Becker 14.5 Vermont 0 2 0.3 -0.3
397 Nathan Davis 13.5 Bucknell 0 2 0.3 -0.3
398 Tic Price 12.5 Lamar 0 2 0.3 -0.3
399 Brian Dutcher 11.0 San Diego St. 0 1 0.3 -0.3
400 Dave Loos 14.5 0 4 0.3 -0.3
401 Bill Musselman 13.0 0 1 0.3 -0.3
402 Billy Gillispie 9.8 3 4 3.3 -0.3
403 John Shumate 10.0 0 1 0.3 -0.3
404 Tevester Anderson 14.3 0 3 0.3 -0.3
405 Jeff Ruland 13.7 0 3 0.3 -0.3
406 Jim Baron 13.5 0 2 0.3 -0.3
407 Joby Wright 13.0 0 1 0.3 -0.3
408 Earl Grant 13.0 College of Charleston 0 1 0.3 -0.3
409 Kerry Rupp 11.0 0 1 0.3 -0.3
410 Randy Ayers 3.3 6 3 6.3 -0.3
411 Mitch Henderson 12.0 Princeton 0 1 0.3 -0.3
412 Ted Fiore 13.5 0 2 0.3 -0.3
413 Bobby Hurley 12.0 Arizona St. 0 1 0.3 -0.3
414 Larry Hunter 12.0 Western Carolina 0 1 0.3 -0.3
415 Anthony Grant 10.3 Dayton 1 3 1.4 -0.4
416 Seth Greenberg 9.7 1 3 1.4 -0.4
417 Jerry Loyd 12.0 0 1 0.4 -0.4
418 George Felton 12.0 0 1 0.4 -0.4
419 Joe Scott 11.0 0 1 0.4 -0.4
420 Doc Sadler 11.0 Southern Mississippi 0 1 0.4 -0.4
421 M.K. Turk 12.0 0 2 0.4 -0.4
422 Scott Sutton 14.3 0 3 0.4 -0.4
423 Chris Jans 12.0 New Mexico St. 0 1 0.4 -0.4
424 Bob Huggins 5.0 West Virginia 33 23 33.4 -0.4
425 Greg Kampe 14.3 Oakland 0 3 0.4 -0.4
426 Tony Barbee 12.0 0 1 0.4 -0.4
427 Paul Evans 6.9 7 7 7.4 -0.4
428 Les Robinson 11.7 1 3 1.4 -0.4
429 Scott Drew 4.9 Baylor 10 7 10.4 -0.4
430 Bill Bayno 11.0 0 2 0.4 -0.4
431 Walt Hazzard 4.0 1 1 1.4 -0.4
432 Mike Brey 6.7 Notre Dame 13 14 13.4 -0.4
433 John Kresse 11.5 1 4 1.4 -0.4
434 Bobby Dye 14.0 0 3 0.4 -0.4
435 Tim Cluess 14.3 Iona 0 4 0.4 -0.4
436 Ed DeChellis 12.5 Navy 0 2 0.4 -0.4
437 Mike Heideman 8.0 0 1 0.5 -0.5
438 Moe Iba 9.0 0 1 0.5 -0.5
439 Terry Holland 5.5 4 4 4.5 -0.5
440 Stan Heath 10.5 4 4 4.5 -0.5
441 Benny Dees 7.0 1 2 1.5 -0.5
442 Don Donoher 9.0 0 1 0.5 -0.5
443 Andy Kennedy 11.5 Mississippi 1 2 1.5 -0.5
444 Steve Robinson 9.3 2 3 2.5 -0.5
445 Karl Hobbs 10.3 1 3 1.5 -0.5
446 Stan Morrison 12.0 0 2 0.5 -0.5
447 Johnny Jones 13.0 0 3 0.5 -0.5
448 Jessie Evans 13.5 0 2 0.5 -0.5
449 Paul Westphal 10.0 0 1 0.5 -0.5
450 Rod Tueller 10.0 0 1 0.5 -0.5
451 Will Brown 14.8 Albany (NY) 0 5 0.5 -0.5
452 Murry Bartow 14.3 0 4 0.5 -0.5
453 T.J. Otzelberger 14.0 South Dakota St. 0 2 0.5 -0.5
454 Dave Paulsen 12.5 George Mason 0 2 0.5 -0.5
455 Pete Herrmann 8.0 0 1 0.5 -0.5
456 Marv Harshman 5.0 0 1 0.5 -0.5
457 Stan Albeck 9.0 0 1 0.5 -0.5
458 Gene Iba 8.0 0 1 0.5 -0.5
459 Brad Brownell 10.2 Clemson 2 4 2.5 -0.5
460 Paul Webb 12.0 0 1 0.5 -0.5
461 Jerry Peirson 11.0 0 2 0.5 -0.5
462 Richard Pitino 5.0 Minnesota 0 1 0.5 -0.5
463 Bill Carmody 11.0 Holy Cross 1 3 1.6 -0.6
464 Jim Crews 8.8 3 6 3.6 -0.6
465 Tad Boyle 9.3 Colorado 1 4 1.6 -0.6
466 Don DeVoe 14.3 0 4 0.6 -0.6
467 Jim Boylen 5.0 0 1 0.6 -0.6
468 Dan Dakich 8.0 0 1 0.6 -0.6
469 Steve Wojciechowski 10.0 Marquette 0 1 0.6 -0.6
470 Matt Doherty 2.0 1 1 1.6 -0.6
471 Jimmy Collins 12.3 0 3 0.6 -0.6
472 Keith Dambrot 13.3 Duquesne 0 3 0.6 -0.6
473 Rick Huckabay 14.0 0 2 0.6 -0.6
474 Mike Lonergan 12.5 0 2 0.6 -0.6
475 Jim Anderson 5.0 0 1 0.6 -0.6
476 Mark Schmidt 12.5 St. Bonaventure 0 2 0.6 -0.6
477 Lynn Nance 8.0 0 1 0.6 -0.6
478 Josh Pastner 8.5 Georgia Tech 2 4 2.7 -0.7
479 Brian Ellerbe 3.0 1 1 1.7 -0.7
480 Steve Hawkins 12.5 Western Michigan 0 2 0.7 -0.7
481 Digger Phelps 7.3 4 6 4.7 -0.7
482 Tim Miles 11.0 Nebraska 0 2 0.7 -0.7
483 Mike Vining 14.3 0 6 0.7 -0.7
484 Mike Young 13.5 Wofford 0 4 0.7 -0.7
485 Jim Molinari 10.5 0 2 0.7 -0.7
486 Rich Herrin 11.7 0 3 0.7 -0.7
487 Mike Montgomery 5.8 18 15 18.7 -0.7
488 Keno Davis 5.0 Central Michigan 0 1 0.7 -0.7
489 Roger Reid 9.4 2 5 2.8 -0.8
490 Jim Christian 10.5 Boston College 0 2 0.8 -0.8
491 Craig Neal 7.0 0 1 0.8 -0.8
492 Riley Wallace 11.7 0 3 0.8 -0.8
493 Gerald Myers 9.5 0 2 0.8 -0.8
494 Scott Nagy 13.3 Wright St. 0 4 0.8 -0.8
495 Brad Soderberg 6.0 0 1 0.8 -0.8
496 Kevin Willard 7.7 Seton Hall 1 3 1.8 -0.8
497 Rob Evans 7.3 1 3 1.8 -0.8
498 Ray McCallum 12.7 0 3 0.8 -0.8
499 Gene Bartow 8.2 2 5 2.9 -0.9
500 Tim Jankovich 6.0 Southern Methodist 0 1 0.9 -0.9
501 Wayne Tinkle 11.8 Oregon St. 0 4 0.9 -0.9
502 Charles Moir 8.0 0 2 0.9 -0.9
503 John Thompson 4.9 22 12 22.9 -0.9
504 Mike Deane 10.3 2 4 2.9 -0.9
505 Kevin Keatts 11.3 North Carolina St. 0 3 0.9 -0.9
506 Barry Collier 13.0 0 3 1.0 -1.0
507 Mark Fox 8.2 Georgia 2 5 3.0 -1.0
508 J.D. Barnett 7.7 1 3 2.0 -1.0
509 Bobby Lutz 7.8 2 5 3.0 -1.0
510 Johnny Orr 10.0 3 6 4.0 -1.0
511 Marvin Menzies 13.2 Nevada-Las Vegas 0 5 1.0 -1.0
512 Bryce Drew 12.0 Vanderbilt 0 3 1.0 -1.0
513 Ralph Miller 9.3 0 3 1.0 -1.0
514 Cuonzo Martin 7.7 Missouri 2 3 3.0 -1.0
515 Dennis Felton 12.5 Cleveland St. 0 4 1.1 -1.1
516 Bob Wenzel 10.0 0 3 1.1 -1.1
517 Todd Bozeman 11.8 Morgan St. 0 4 1.1 -1.1
518 Steve Cleveland 12.0 0 3 1.2 -1.2
519 Ed Cooley 9.0 Providence 1 4 2.2 -1.2
520 Lute Olson 4.2 34 21 35.2 -1.2
521 Blaine Taylor 12.3 1 6 2.2 -1.2
522 Dave Rice 5.5 0 2 1.2 -1.2
523 Bruiser Flint 9.0 0 2 1.3 -1.3
524 Pat Foster 10.0 0 3 1.3 -1.3
525 Tom Asbury 12.3 0 4 1.3 -1.3
526 Rick Byrd 14.0 Belmont 0 7 1.3 -1.3
527 Jerry Green 6.0 3 5 4.3 -1.3
528 Travis Ford 8.8 Saint Louis 1 6 2.4 -1.4
529 Frank Haith 6.0 Tulsa 1 3 2.4 -1.4
530 Jud Heathcote 5.1 7 7 8.4 -1.4
531 Speedy Morris 9.5 1 4 2.4 -1.4
532 Stew Morrill 12.9 1 9 2.5 -1.5
533 Jeff Mullins 9.0 0 3 1.5 -1.5
534 Bobby Cremins 4.8 15 10 16.5 -1.5
535 Al Skinner 6.6 Kennesaw St. 7 9 8.6 -1.6
536 Hugh Durham 8.0 1 4 2.6 -1.6
537 Tim Welsh 9.0 0 3 1.6 -1.6
538 Greg McDermott 8.4 Creighton 3 8 4.6 -1.6
539 Billy Tubbs 2.9 14 8 15.6 -1.6
540 Mick Cronin 7.8 Cincinnati 6 10 7.6 -1.6
541 George Raveling 7.8 1 4 2.7 -1.7
542 Rick Stansbury 6.7 Western Kentucky 4 6 5.8 -1.8
543 Bob Knight 5.3 24 18 26.1 -2.1
544 John Thompson III 5.8 9 10 11.1 -2.1
545 Dave Odom 5.2 10 9 12.2 -2.2
546 Dave Rose 8.3 Brigham Young 3 7 5.2 -2.2
547 Steve Lappas 4.5 2 4 4.3 -2.3
548 Gene Keady 4.9 18 15 20.3 -2.3
549 Skip Prosser 7.2 6 9 8.5 -2.5
550 Tony Bennett 3.4 Virginia 10 8 12.6 -2.6
551 Kelvin Sampson 6.3 Houston 13 14 15.8 -2.8
552 Eddie Fogler 6.7 2 6 4.9 -2.9
553 Oliver Purnell 8.2 0 6 2.9 -2.9
554 Danny Nee 8.7 0 6 3.2 -3.2
555 Lou Henson 5.8 9 10 12.5 -3.5
556 Norm Stewart 5.9 7 10 10.6 -3.6
557 Jamie Dixon 5.2 Texas Christian 12 12 16.1 -4.1
558 Rick Barnes 6.2 Tennessee 22 23 26.1 -4.1
559 Fran Dunphy 10.6 Temple 3 16 7.1 -4.1

Source: Sports-Reference.com/cbb

In fact, it was Syracuse’s victory over Michigan State this month that allowed Boeheim to pass Izzo. (Syracuse had only a 19 percent chance of winning, based on the two teams’ pre-tournament Elo ratings.) Going into the second week of this year’s tourney, Boeheim finds himself at the top of a heap that also includes fellow Sweet 16 entrants John Calipari (Kentucky), John Beilein (Michigan) and, of course, Coach K.

And at the other end of the spectrum, some active coaches have added this month to their less-than-stellar tourney marks. Tennessee’s Rick Barnes ranks as the second-worst NCAA tournament coach since 1985 by this metric, and his Volunteers flamed out as a No. 3 seed against No. 11 Loyola-Chicago. (Barnes beats only current Temple coach Fran Dunphy.) TCU’s Jamie Dixon, who previously coached Pittsburgh for 14 seasons, ranks third-worst, and his squad was upset in the Round of 64 by none other than Boeheim’s Orange. Meanwhile, Houston’s Kelvin Sampson, Virginia’s Tony Bennett and Cincinnati’s Mick Cronin all rank in the bottom 20 since 1985, and all three were bounced from this year’s tournament in disappointing fashion.2 Bennett’s Cavaliers, in fact, became the first No. 1 seed to ever lose to a No. 16 seed, which cost him practically an entire win against expectation in a single result.

Can Boeheim add to his leading tally when Syracuse faces Krzyzewski and Duke on Friday night? Our prediction model says it’s doubtful, giving the Blue Devils an 85 percent chance of victory. But perhaps that’s just setting Boeheim up for another unexpected win — and another big boost in our metric. Certainly, stranger things have happened against Syracuse and its unconventional defensive scheme over the years.

Check out our latest March Madness predictions.

Footnotes

  1. Excluding play-in games (even though Boeheim won one of these this year). Also, to avoid punishing coaches once they’ve pulled a few upsets — which would improve the team’s rating — we froze each team’s Elo rating at the beginning of each tournament before running our probabilities.

  2. Virginia and Cincinnati were upset by lower-seeded teams, while Houston led Michigan with seconds left before giving up a 28-foot buzzer-beating game-winner to freshman Jordan Poole.

Neil Paine is a senior sportswriter for FiveThirtyEight.

Comments