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Hot Takedown’s Super Bowl Breakdown

The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will face off Sunday in Super Bowl LIV in Miami. Our model has the 49ers as 3.5-point underdogs, with a 37 percent chance of pulling off a win. The model is even less enthusiastic about San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who has a quarterback Elo rating of 133, compared to the 279 of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. But that didn’t stop Kyle Brandt on “Good Morning Football” from making the case for not only the Niners but specifically the talent of Garoppolo. Neil and Sara are joined in the studio by FiveThirtyEight football analyst Josh Hermsmeyer to break down the flaws in Brandt’s argument and highlight the matchups to watch on Sunday.

Later in the show, Josh updates us on the latest innovations in NFL analytics and what all of this might mean for the league. Plus, does Eli Manning deserve to be in the Hall of Fame?

Our Rabbit Hole of the Week celebrates Caroline Wozniacki’s unique career.

What we’re looking at this week:

Grace Lynch is the former producer of Hot Takedown.

Sara Ziegler is the former sports editor at FiveThirtyEight.

Neil Paine was the acting sports editor at FiveThirtyEight.

Josh Hermsmeyer was a football writer and analyst.