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Early Voting Data Is Here. Don’t Put Too Much Stock In It.

With less than three weeks until Election Day, Republicans have noticeably gained ground in the FiveThirtyEight forecast. In this installment of “Model Talk,” Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the reasons for Republicans’ improvement. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a recent New York Times poll shouldn’t be taken at face value — but also shouldn’t undercut the poll. Finally, they answer listener questions about early voting and Fivey Fox’s statistical philosophy.

Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

Galen Druke is FiveThirtyEight’s podcast producer and reporter.