We’re calling it a night, folks. There are actually still a few interesting races left unresolved. In particular: The GOP primary for governor in Kansas, where Gov. Jeff Colyer and Kris Kobach are running neck-and-neck; and the special election in Ohio 12, where Republican Troy Balderson has what seems like a safe lead, but it’s small enough that we don’t expect the race to be called tonight.
Ohio 12 was the headline race going into the night and it basically went according to script. Balderson had a small lead according to an average of polls, and it looks like he’ll squeak it out. More broadly, Ohio 12 looks to have shifted by about 13 points towards Democrats relative to its partisan lean (how we would expect it to vote in a neutral political environment):
|Year||Date||Seat||Partisan Lean||Vote Margin||Dem. Swing|
|2017||April 4||California 34th*||D+69||D+87||+18|
|April 11||Kansas 4th||R+29||R+6||+23|
|May 25||Montana at large||R+21||R+6||+16|
|June 20||Georgia 6th||R+9||R+4||+6|
|June 20||South Carolina 5th||R+19||R+3||+16|
|Nov. 7||Utah 3rd||R+35||R+32||+3|
|Dec. 12||Alabama Senate||R+29||D+2||+31|
|2018||March 13||Pennsylvania 18th||R+21||D+0.3||+22|
|April 24||Arizona 8th||R+25||R+5||+20|
|June 30||Texas 27th*||R+26||R+21||+5|
|Aug. 7||Ohio 12th†||R+14||R+1||+13|
That’s just about in line with Democrats’ average overperformance in these elections in the Trump era. Special elections have been a good sign for Democratic midterm hopes for awhile now, and Ohio 12 was no exception (even if Balderson hangs on).
In any case, here’s our plan: We’ll have some additional analysis/thoughts on the night’s results (hopefully fully resolved by then) in a separate article going up early tomorrow morning. Please check back then.
In the meantime, thank you as always for watching the returns with us.