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WNBC/Marist: New York a Swing State?

The Swamp cites a WNBC/Marist poll that shows McCain highly competitive with both Democrats in the Empire State. In fact, he is leading Barack Obama by 2 points, while Hillary Clinton leads McCain by the same small margin.

We try and keep an open mind here, but … I’m going to go ahead and call this one an outlier. For one thing, Marist has a below-average pollster rating. For another, this survey asked another question about a McCain-Condi Rice versus Clinton-Obama and Obama-Clinton tickets. If the Condi question was asked before the regular Presidential trial heat questions, that could influence perceptions of the latter — a classic case of question order biasing the results.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.