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Where The U.S. Women Are Likely To Play In The World Cup’s Knockout Stage

Check out FiveThirtyEight’s Women’s World Cup predictions.

Let’s begin with a confession …

This article is 100 percent a selfish undertaking to determine if I will get to see the U.S. women’s national team play live at the Women’s World Cup, which begins Saturday. You see, I blindly bought tickets to “Match No. 49,” a semifinal matchup June 30 in Montreal. As a 27-year-old woman looking to relive her experience as an 11-year-old fanatic during the 1999 Women’s World Cup, I want nothing more than to see the USWNT play in that game.

That’s what brings me to this article — a guide to following the USWNT.

Below you’ll find the chances of seeing the U.S. in Vancouver, Edmonton, Ottawa, Montreal and Moncton in each knockout-stage round, based on FiveThirtyEight’s Women’s World Cup predictions.

katz-datalab-usachances

For example, FiveThirtyEight projects that the U.S. has a 65 percent chance of making the semifinals. Based on the U.S.’s most likely path, there is a 51 percent chance that the Americans will participate in the semifinal game in Montreal (Match No. 49) and a 14 percent chance that they will participate in the game in Edmonton.

Sharon B. Katz is an analytics writer for ESPN’s Stats & Info Group.

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