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What A 95 Percent Chance To Win The Super Bowl Actually Means
FiveThirtyEight
 

With a little less than eight minutes left in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s Super Bowl, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs found themselves down by 10 points — and ESPN’s win probability model gave the San Francisco 49ers a 95 percent chance of winning the game. So was the fact that the Chiefs raised the trophy at the end a testament to their greatness? Or did the Niners choke? Hot Takedown breaks down the turning points in the game and what these win probability projections actually mean.

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Grace Lynch is Hot Takedown’s producer.

Sara Ziegler is the sports editor at FiveThirtyEight.

Neil Paine is a senior writer for FiveThirtyEight.

Geoff Foster is the former sports editor of FiveThirtyEight.

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