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Our Updated College Football Playoff Odds For Week 11

Clemson is sitting pretty at the top spot. Alabama leapfrogged Ohio State to be No. 2. While LSU and TCU slipped, Iowa and Stanford made big leaps.

So go the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Were the selection committee to form a playoff this week, its top four would be Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Notre Dame. But who cares about this week? Let’s fast-forward to Dec. 6, when the final decision on this year’s playoff participants will be announced. Our model simulated the rest of the season, and the results are in the table below.

Ranking Probability of …
Team CFP Elo FPI Conf. Title Playoff Nat. Title
Clemson 9-0 1 3 6 67% 67% 17%
Ohio State 9-0 3 2 5 44% 56% 15%
Alabama 8-1 2 1 4 35% 43% 12%
Baylor 8-0 6 7 2 34% 31% 12%
Notre Dame 8-1 4 6 9 30% 8%
Stanford 8-1 7 5 11 52% 28% 6%
Oklahoma St. 9-0 8 4 13 38% 23% 5%
Iowa 9-0 5 13 29 28% 22% 2%
Oklahoma 8-1 12 14 1 19% 17% 7%
Florida 8-1 11 10 14 38% 17% 3%
LSU 7-1 9 9 8 14% 12% 3%
Utah 8-1 10 11 21 21% 11% 2%
TCU 8-1 15 12 3 9% 10% 4%
Michigan St. 8-1 13 8 22 11% 10% 1%
Michigan 7-2 14 20 16 13% 7% 1%
North Carolina 8-1 23 18 20 30% 4% <1%
Mississippi St. 7-2 17 16 15 3% 3% <1%
UCLA 7-2 19 21 18 6% 3% <1%
Houston 9-0 24 22 36 34% 2% <1%
USC 6-3 19 7 19% 1% <1%
Wisconsin 8-2 25 17 24 3% <1% <1%
Florida State 7-2 16 24 17 0% <1% <1%
Navy 7-1 20 15 54 18% <1% <1%
Temple 8-1 22 28 39 44% <1% <1%
Mississippi 7-3 26 10 9% <1% <1%
Memphis 8-1 21 31 45 3% <1% <1%
Oregon 6-3 23 32 1% <1% <1%
Northwestern 7-2 18 29 61 <1% <1% <1%
College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings as of Nov. 10.

 

We project that three of the top four teams from this week will make the playoff, but we expect Baylor to surpass Notre Dame. It’s no guarantee, though; the Bears will play three games against top 15 teams — including a big one against Oklahoma on Saturday — so their playoff odds are only 31 percent.

Another big change in our model since last week: Clemson has a lock on the No. 1 ranking. After gritting out a tough win over Florida State last week, the Tigers’ playoff odds are at 67 percent, with a 17 percent chance of taking the national title. Both numbers top all other teams. Ohio State has the second-highest odds of making the playoffs; the model put them at 56 percent. Alabama, fresh off an impressive win over LSU, has playoff odds of 43 percent.

And finally, for you methodology diehards, we’ve made some slight tweaks to the model since last week. You can read about them here. For a deeper explanation, read Nate Silver’s original explanation of the model’s methodology.

Jay Boice is a computational journalist for FiveThirtyEight.

Reuben Fischer-Baum is a visual journalist for FiveThirtyEight.

Andrew Flowers writes about economics and sports for FiveThirtyEight.

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