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Boy, Those Toronto Blue Jays World Series Odds Went South Quick

Before any MLB playoff games were played, things were looking so good for Canada’s World Series hopes. (The country’s title drought in hockey gets all the attention, but no baseball champ has hailed from north of the border since 1993, either.) With odds of 19 percent, the Toronto Blue Jays had the best chance of winning the World Series of any team, according to our pre-playoffs MLB Elo ratings.

Now? Not so much. The Blue Jays have lost the two first games to the Texas Rangers in their best-of-five American League Division Series. That’s changed their chance of winning it all — as well as everyone else’s.

According to the latest Elo simulation of the rest of the playoffs — which includes the Rangers’ victory over Toronto on Friday afternoon but no subsequent results — the Blue Jays’ probability of breaking Canada’s winless streak is now just 5 percent:

CHANCE THAT A TEAM WILL …
TEAM ELO MAKE LDS MAKE LCS MAKE WS WIN WS
Texas Rangers 1535 100% 85% 43% 22%
Houston Astros 1528 100 67 31 15
Chicago Cubs 1558 100 50 27 14
St. Louis Cardinals 1549 100 50 28 14
Los Angeles Dodgers 1535 100 52 24 11
New York Mets 1523 100 48 21 10
Kansas City Royals 1538 100 33 18 10
Toronto Blue Jays 1564 100 15 8 5
Pittsburgh Pirates 1554 0 0 0 0
New York Yankees 1516 0 0 0 0

Because they’re up 2-0 in their series versus Toronto, the Texas Rangers are now your World Series favorites, though that can and will change depending on what happens the rest of Friday.

Neil Paine is a senior sportswriter for FiveThirtyEight.

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