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Today’s Polls II, 5/22

I don’t want to make a habit of this, but with four new polls out, there’s enough for a midday update. And there’s something for everyone to be happy (and unhappy) about.

In Virginia, SurveyUSA shows Barack Obama 7 points ahead of John McCain, a major reversal from last month when Obama was 8 points behind. The truth, assuredly, lies somewhere in between, and our weighted averages give McCain a 2-point lead in Virginia. Hillary Clinton’s matchup was not polled by SurveyUSA.

But in Nevada, Rasmussen has Hillary Clinton ahead of John McCain by 5 points, whereas Obama trails him by 6. Rasmussen’s last poll in Nevada was also somewhat tough on Obama (he was down by 3) but this is a major reversal for Clinton, who had been 10 points behind.

Rasmussen also polled California, showing 14- and 21- point leads for Obama and Hillary Clinton, respectively. Finally, a new Rocky Mountain poll in Arizona has John McCain 11 points ahead of Obama and 15 points ahead of Clinton.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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