We’ve been in a little bit of a lull for polling, as pollsters, quite understandably, might have wanted to wait for the Democratic nomination to resolve itself before putting new surveys out in the field. But a couple of late-breaking polls this afternoon.
In Missouri, Rasmussen has Barack Obama with a trivial, 1-point lead over John McCain. In Rasmussen’s previous survey, Obama had trailed by 6. SurveyUSA had also shown Missouri closing to toss-up status; our regression model is liable to remain a little bit skeptical until Obama can improve his numbers some in other Southern states. But this is a state that’s going to be competed in from now through November.
Just across the border, a Research 2000 / Daily Kos poll has John McCain ahead by 11 points in Kansas. The poll also suggests that Kansans are fairly lukewarm about the prospect of Kathleen Sebelius as VP — though importantly, a 36-24 plurality of independents say she’d make them more likely to vote for the ticket. We’re going to have some research out over the next couple of days about the home-state effects triggered by a Vice Presidential nominee.
Finally, in Alabama, a Capital Survey Research Center poll has John McCain 24 points ahead of Obama.