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Today’s Polls, 4/14

EDIT: Site has now been fully (if belatedly) updated.

Four new polls today, and they’re literally and figuratively all over the map.

The most interesting result is perhaps in Florida, where Rasmussen shows a huge difference between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Clinton leads McCain by 1 point, whereas Obama trails him by 15. This poll was conducted on Thursday, before any effects from the “bittergate” story — is that bad news for Obama, or good news in a way? — and so the results probably have more to do with the poor demographics for Obama in that state, and perhaps the fallout over the discussion of the Florida re-vote. Remember, Rasmussen’s previous poll in Florida was the only one to show Obama performing better than Clinton in the state.

In Michigan, however, EPIC/MRA — which polls the state frequently, if not always tremendously effectively — shows almost the reverse scenario: Obama leads McCain by 2 whereas Hillary trails him by 9. My sense from talking to folks on the ground in Michigan is that while its citizens were disappointed with both Democrats — note that McCain outfundraised both Democrats in the state — the fact that Obama’s name was not on the ballot made the January primary result manifestly less fair, and Clinton’s calls to count its result therefore seem more cravenly opportunistic. EDIT: Of note in the Michigan poll: it showed Ralph Nader garnering 8 percent in the McCain-Obama matchup and 10 percent in the McCain-Clinton matchup. That seems pretty close to prima facie evidence that the re-vote controversy has had some kind of impact.

Temple University has a new general election poll out in Pennsylvania, which shows both Democrats with comfortable leads over McCain: Clinton is +11 and Obama +7. Like the Rasmussen poll last week that showed both Democrats making gains in the Pennsylvania, this poll also was taken before the bittergate controversy; my expectation is that both Democrats might be damaged now that the campaign has turned divisive again.

Finally, in North Carolina, Civitas has McCain leading Obama by 9 points and Clinton by 13 — perhaps a reality check on Friday’s Rasmussen poll that showed Obama having drawn to within a tie of McCain in that state.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.