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Today’s Polls, 3/18

The most interesting poll at the state level today comes from Public Policy Polling, which shows John McCain ahead of Barack Obama by 11 points in Florida, but with Hillary more competitive at 4 points behind. This is really the first state poll result we’ve had that was conducted in the midst of the Wright controversy; PPP last surveyed the state in early January, when it had Obama down by 6 and Clinton down by the same 4-point margin. It should come as refreshing news to Hillary after last week’s Rasmussen poll showed Obama performing better than her in Florida. Nevertheless, neither Democrat can be thrilled with their position in Florida; of the eight polls in our Florida database, Clinton won just one, while Obama has gone oh-fer.

Keep an eye out for PPP, by the way. They’re doing more and more polling, had a pretty good track record in the primaries, and are refreshingly candid in their analysis.

The only other thing we’ve got for you is a Mansfield University survey in Pennsylvania, which shows Obama 0.7 points ahead of McCain, but McCain 3.1 points ahead of Clinton (yes, they include the decimal place, so I will too). However, this is actually a somewhat old poll, conducted over a long time window from February 13 through March 6. The averages use the median date that the poll was conducted — not the date the poll was posted — and so it will be discounted appropriately.

Both Democrats have moved down slightly overall; Obama’s win percentage against McCain now stands at 56.1%, and Clinton’s at 38.4%.

Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.