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The First Democratic Debate In Five Charts

UPDATE (July 1, 2019, 2:15 p.m.): We have updated our debate performance chart with the final wave of survey data from our poll with Morning Consult. Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris still had the highest average performance ratings of all the candidates.


Thursday night was the conclusion of the first Democratic primary debate, and, like everybody else, we’re trying to make sense of what we watched. Some candidates had breakout moments while others were pushed to the sidelines. But did these moments really make a difference to viewers?

In an attempt to answer this question, we are trying to sum up the first debate in five charts, including: our poll with Morning Consult, which is tracking the same group of voters’ feelings about the candidates and how they change after the debates; a look at which candidates gained the most followers on Twitter; and of course, how much each of the candidates spoke, including whether they mentioned President Trump.

Who overperformed?

Going into the debates, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris both had favorability ratings of more than 50 percent among likely Democratic voters. And after their respective debates, they came out even stronger — respondents who watched the debates gave them the two highest average ratings on performance, according to our poll with Morning Consult.

The debates were also big for some lesser-known candidates, such as former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro. He went into the debates with a favorability rating just under 30 percent, and respondents rated his debate performance highly, which suggests that it’s more than just his existing fans who thought he did well (as you can see in the chart below). Sen. Cory Booker also had a strong debate performance. But the two candidates currently leading in the polls, Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden, both underperformed.

Who’s gaining followers?

After the first night of the debates, Castro was the one to watch — at least on Twitter. He had gained more than 50,000 followers by Thursday afternoon.

But following Thursday night’s debate, Harris gained nearly 60,000 new followers — the most new followers acquired by any of the Democratic candidates between the day of their debate and the following afternoon. This might not come as a surprise, as Harris had a particularly powerful moment when she called out Biden for his remarks about working with segregationist senators and his opposition to school integration via busing in the 1970s, saying the issue affected her personally.

“There was a little girl in California who was part of the second class to integrate her public schools, and she was bused to school every day. And that little girl was me.”

Who gained the most Twitter followers?

Change in Twitter followers from the afternoon before each candidate debated to the afternoon after their debate night

No. of Twitter followers
Debate Night Candidate Before debate Increase
2 Harris 2,729,541 59,588
1 Castro 220,987 54,886
2 Buttigieg 1,160,106 40,209
2 Yang 404,329 39,363
2 Williamson 2,621,444 31,246
1 Warren 2,673,496 30,240
1 Gabbard 381,316 19,278
1 Booker 4,258,986 10,676
2 Sanders 9,341,166 7,299
1 Klobuchar 706,774 5,480
1 Inslee 65,487 4,366
2 Gillibrand 1,427,945 3,785
2 Biden 3,607,252 3,751
1 De Blasio 157,535 2,666
1 Delaney 22,467 2,483
1 O’Rourke 1,432,328 2,426
2 Swalwell 93,960 2,098
1 Ryan 22,365 1,460
2 Hickenlooper 146,734 1,312
2 Bennet 23,459 1,145

Who held the floor?

Of course, in order for any of these candidates to impress viewers or gain followers, they needed to get their message out. As you can see in the table below, Harris and Booker were among the candidates with the highest number of words spoken on either night. But just holding the floor wasn’t enough. Biden, for instance, spoke more words than any other candidate, but according to results from our poll with Morning Consult, he lost supporters, dropping from nearly 42 percent before the first night of the debate to 32 percent after his appearance on Thursday.

Who spoke the most?

Number of words spoken by candidates participating in either night of the first Democratic debate

Debate Night Candidate Words spoken
2 Joe Biden 2475
1 Cory Booker 2181
2 Kamala Harris 2147
2 Pete Buttigieg 2072
1 Beto O’Rourke 1932
2 Bernie Sanders 1676
1 Elizabeth Warren 1637
1 Amy Klobuchar 1614
1 Julián Castro 1588
2 Michael Bennet 1462
2 Kirsten Gillibrand 1421
1 Tim Ryan 1383
1 Tulsi Gabbard 1243
1 John Delaney 1060
2 Marianne Williamson 983
2 Eric Swalwell 966
2 John Hickenlooper 951
1 Bill de Blasio 881
1 Jay Inslee 875
2 Andrew Yang 594

Excludes words spoken in Spanish

Source: Debate Transcript via ABC News

So we also compared the number of words candidates spoke to their polling averages (using all 23 polls that the Democratic National Committee sanctioned for candidates to use in qualifying for the debate). And, perhaps unsurprisingly, the number of words spoken by each of the candidates roughly correlated with their polling averages over both nights, with the correlation being somewhat stronger during the second debate.

But there were notable outliers, like Booker and Harris, who both spoke more than their polling averages might have predicted. Sanders and Warren were also outliers, in that they spoke less than their standing in the polls might have suggested. And then, of course, there’s Andrew Yang, who spoke the least out of all the candidates even though he was in the middle of the pack in polling average.

Avoid Trump, or invoke him?

One of the most obvious differences between the two nights of debates was how many times the candidates mentioned — or didn’t mention — Trump’s name. The candidates on stage Thursday mentioned the president a total of 34 times, while the candidates on Wednesday mentioned him just 20 times. Notably, Sen. Elizabeth Warren did not use his name a single time on the first night, making her the only one of the four candidates leading the polls not to mention Trump explicitly.

But on the second night, Trump and his administration’s policies took center stage. For example, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who has positioned herself as the most anti-Trump candidate, mentioned the president eight times (the most of any candidate on either night), at one point saying he has “torn apart the moral fabric of who we are.”

Which candidates talked about Trump?

How often President Trump’s name was mentioned by candidates participating in either night of the first Democratic debate

Debate Night Candidate Trump Mentions
2 Kirsten Gillibrand 8
2 Bernie Sanders 6
2 Marianne Williamson 6
1 Amy Klobuchar 5
2 Joe Biden 4
2 Kamala Harris 4
2 Andrew Yang 4
1 Jay Inslee 4
1 Cory Booker 3
1 Beto O’Rourke 3
2 Michael Bennet 2
1 Tulsi Gabbard 2
1 Julián Castro 2
1 Tim Ryan 1
2 John Hickenlooper 0
2 Pete Buttigieg 0
2 Eric Swalwell 0
1 Bill de Blasio 0
1 John Delaney 0
1 Elizabeth Warren 0

Source: Debate Transcript via ABC News


From ABC News:


FiveThirtyEight democratic debate poll


CORRECTION (July 31, 2019, 5:52 p.m.): A previous version of the first chart in this article omitted Andrew Yang. It has been updated.

CORRECTION (June 29, 2019, 10:40 a.m.): A previous version of this article incorrectly said Warren was the only top-five polling front-runner not to mention Trump by name. Buttigieg ranked fifth in an average of the DNC’s qualifying polls and also did not mention Trump.

Laura Bronner is a senior applied scientist at ETH Zürich and FiveThirtyEight’s former quantitative editor.

Annette Choi was a data visualization intern for FiveThirtyEight.

Erin Doherty was a politics intern for FiveThirtyEight.

Julia Wolfe is FiveThirtyEight’s former senior editor, data visualization.

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