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Significant Digits For Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2016

You’re reading Significant Digits, a daily digest of the telling numbers tucked inside the news.

3 plays

The Oxford University Press, after an extensive analysis, will credit Christopher Marlowe as a co-author on three Shakespeare plays. The three plays in the “Henry VI” trilogy will be credited to Marlowe and Shakespeare, and if you want to know more, we try to keep things tight here, but believe me, your friend who did a lot of plays in college has a very, very, very strong opinion about this, so hit them up. [The Associated Press]

15 percent

Although it fluctuates, that’s roughly where FiveThirtyEight’s polls-only model has Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidential race. That’s a little more bullish on the Republican’s chances than other models, and that’s because of the model’s design. If we ignored the large number of undecided votes, Trump’s chances would be 10 percent; if we calibrated the model since 2000 rather than 1972, his chances would be about 5 percent; and if we assumed states moved independently rather than having some correlation in error, that would give him less than a 1 percent chance. [FiveThirtyEight]

22 percent

Health insurance costs under the Affordable Care Act will rise an average of 22 percent in 2017, according to new estimates, though tax credits track with the rise in premiums. About 70 percent of people buying insurance in Obamacare marketplaces could get a plan that costs less than $75 per month in 2017, the Obama administration said. [NPR]

42 days, 6 hours, 30 minutes

Pete Kostelnick has set a world record for fastest run across America; the 29-year-old ran the 3,067 miles from San Francisco’s City Hall to New York’s in just more than 42 days. The previous record was set in 1980 at 46 days, 8 hours, 36 minutes. [Runner’s World]

76 percent

Sell-through rate of Donald Trump Halloween masks, a notch above the 69 percent for Hillary Clinton masks, according to the Savers/Value Village thrift store. I am going as “Sexy Evan McMullin” for Halloween, a costume that will only be recognized in Utah and will not be received well at all. [AOL News]

2 million copies

SAG-AFTRA video game voiceover artists are on strike! The union wants bonuses for its performers for every 2 million copies sold, up to 8 million copies. On average, voice actors in video games make $825.50 for a four-hour session. [Motherboard]

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Walt Hickey was FiveThirtyEight’s chief culture writer.