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Significant Digits For Tuesday, July 26, 2016

You’re reading Significant Digits, a daily digest of the telling numbers tucked inside the news.


18 months

It’s happening: the East River tunnel that carries the L Train — which connects parts of Brooklyn to Manhattan — will shut down for 18 months in 2019 for repairs necessitated by Hurricane Sandy. [The New York Times]


29 percent

FiveThirtyEight’s election model doesn’t mess around with internal polling, but here’s something interesting out of Utah: Two weeks ago an internal poll for Republican Rep. Mia Love’s campaign found support for Trump at only 29 percent in the state, Clinton at 27 percent and Gary Johnson at 26 percent. [The Salt Lake Tribune]


32 percent

Pokemon Go is a hit on mobile, prompting investors to send Nintendo’s stock up and up and up. The problem? Nintendo reminded investors Friday that it only owns 32 percent of the Pokemon Company, which made the app with Niantic Labs, thus sending Nintendo’s stock down as far as 17 percent at one point Monday. [The Verge]


46 percent

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are closer than ever in our forecast. That’s because of some combination of a Republican National Convention bounce for Trump, the last few weeks of bad news for Hillary Clinton, and Trump’s overall positive trend since the end of the primaries. According to the polls-only forecast, there’s a 46 percent chance Trump becomes president. Based on the now-cast, he has a 54 percent chance of winning if the election were held today. [FiveThirtyEight]


Relevant weeklong sidebar: It’s the Democratic National Convention! FiveThirtyEight has sent its crack political team — and also for some inexplicable reason me — to Philly, known to Giants fans like me as a seething hellmouth, to cover the events. FiveThirtyEight has its own show on ABC News Digital at 5 p.m. ET each evening of the convention, so tune in to that! I’ll be on the stream later on in the evening, so watch that too.


90 percent

Based on a study by the Pew Research Center, 90 percent of Sen. Bernie Sanders’s supporters in April of 2016 now support Hillary Clinton for the presidency. [Pew Research Center]


140 entrants

A person with the last name “Hemingway” has won the Key West, Florida “Big Papa” Ernest Hemingway Look-Alike Contest for the first time in the event’s 36-year history. Unrelated to the author, he was one of 140 entrants. [The Guardian]


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Walt Hickey was FiveThirtyEight’s chief culture writer.

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