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Should Obama Expect a Big Convention Bounce?

by Nate Poblano-Halperin

Five Reasons to Expect a Large Bump:

1. Obama has twice the usual number of swing voters to reach out to: independents and PUMAs.

2. Enormous amounts of star power in the lineup — including, of course, Obama himself.

3. Interest — and ratings — will be high.

4. McCain comeback story is getting old; media pendulum may be swinging at right time.

5. Hillary’s reputation is on the line, and she will rise to the top of her game.

Five Reasons to Expect No Bump, or a Small One:

1. Even small PUMA eruptions will be magnified by the media.

2. Expectations for Obama’s speechmaking powers will be exceptionally high.

3. The VP bounce is often part of the convention bounce, but Biden hasn’t moved the numbers much so far.

4. McCain team can quickly stomp on any bounce with response ads and veep speculation.

5. Bill’s ego is on the line, and he will not be at the top of his game.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.