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Politics Podcast: There’s A 6-In-10 Chance One Party Will Control Both Chambers Of Congress

According to the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast, Republicans have a 69 percent chance of winning back the House, while Democrats have a 68 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate, although there has been some movement behind those topline numbers.

In this installment of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how polling could change before the midterms, including the shift from registered voters to likely voters, and whether the generic ballot could continue favoring Democrats. They also answer some listener questions, including what’s going on in the Alaska Senate election and how much candidate quality actually matters.

You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.

Galen Druke is FiveThirtyEight’s podcast producer and reporter.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.