The conventional wisdom that Republicans will do well in the midterms hasn’t always been borne out in the polling numbers, which have shown Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races around the country. That discrepancy can also be seen in the relatively large gap between FiveThirtyEight’s Lite and Deluxe midterm forecasts.
In this installment of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of this and answer listener questions about the forecast model. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much President Biden’s success in a potential 2024 primary election hangs on Democrats’ performance at the midterms.
You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.
The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.