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Politics Podcast: The 2020 Presidential Forecast Is Live!

On Wednesday, we launched our 2020 presidential election forecast. It currently shows Joe Biden with a 71 percent chance of winning the election and President Trump with a 29 percent chance. In this “Model Talk” edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the new additions to the forecast and what makes this election’s outcome so uncertain.

You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.

Galen Druke is FiveThirtyEight’s podcast producer and reporter.

Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.