Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District by a 25-point margin on Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. It’s tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but in this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew explains why one election alone isn’t a reliable indicator.
The team also debates whether phone or online polling is a better tool for assessing Americans’ views on sensitive topics like the death penalty. And they preview a forthcoming report on how FiveThirtyEight’s forecast models did in 2020.
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