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Politics Podcast: National And District-Level Polls Disagree About How Close The 2020 Election Is

Our national polling average shows Joe Biden with about a 10-point lead, while the state-level polls indicate his lead is closer to 8 points. Meanwhile, some recent polling in congressional districts shows margins for Biden that suggest he’s leading by more than 10 points nationally. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, editor-in-chief Nate Silver talks to Galen Druke about why those polls are showing different degrees of competitiveness. They also answer listener questions including, How long did it take to build the forecast? And what’s the chance of a Georgia runoff deciding who controls the Senate?

You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.

Galen Druke is FiveThirtyEight’s podcast producer and reporter.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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