Our national polling average shows Joe Biden with about a 10-point lead, while the state-level polls indicate his lead is closer to 8 points. Meanwhile, some recent polling in congressional districts shows margins for Biden that suggest he’s leading by more than 10 points nationally. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, editor-in-chief Nate Silver talks to Galen Druke about why those polls are showing different degrees of competitiveness. They also answer listener questions including, How long did it take to build the forecast? And what’s the chance of a Georgia runoff deciding who controls the Senate?
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