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The Pennsylvania Lottery

Below is a snapshot of all Pennsylvania primary polls from the conclusion of the Texas/Ohio primaries until now. I’ve then plotted polynomial trendlines of various degrees and projected the results outward a couple days forward until Election Day.

This is by no means as sophisticated as what the Pollster.com guys do and in fact I do not endorse it as a way to look at the election at all. I just wanted to make the point that — whatever trend you want to see in the polling numbers, you can draw a trendline to match.


Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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