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Oh, Hey — There’s Finally An NCAA Men’s Tournament Favorite

The Final Four is set! And after 64 games, the FiveThirtyEight tournament model finally has a clear favorite. In this week’s video, we take a look at which team — UNC, Oklahoma, Villanova or (surprise!) Syracuse — has the best chance of winning it all, as well as how the probabilities have changed since before the tournament started. We also discuss how Syracuse’s run compares with the all-time great Cinderellas and crown a new “most exciting game” of the tournament.

Check out FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 March Madness Predictions.

Neil Paine is a senior writer for FiveThirtyEight.

Reuben Fischer-Baum is a visual journalist for FiveThirtyEight.