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Obama Margin of Error

Well, the exit polls apparently show an “easy win” for Obama in North Carolina. And if you make inferences based on the results of the recession question, the exit poll appears to show him ahead in Indiana by a point or two.

Subtract what Chuck Todd refers to as the “Obama margin of error” — his tendency to overperform in the exit polls by about 7 points — and that implies a comfortable enough but perhaps not “easy” win in North Carolina, and a Clinton win in Indiana by about 5 points — exactly what everyone expected going in.

UPDATE: There are a apparently contradictory versions of the Indiana exit poll, with another version showing Clinton winning by mid-single digits. The only thing I think we know for certain is that crossover voting will be a huge factor in Indiana.

UPDATE-2: From what best I can gather, I don’t think either campaign was expecting a double-digit margin in North Carolina going into tonight.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.