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Mike Trout Is The MVP — And Still On Track For The G.O.A.T.

Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout is widely acknowledged to be the best player in baseball and has been for quite some time. But for all his gifts, awards recognition has been hard for Trout to come by. Although Trout has led the American League in wins above replacement (WAR) for each of the past five seasons,1 he had only won MVP honors once going into Thursday night’s award announcement — and victory there was far from assured.

Unlike in the past, though, when Trout’s horrid teammates were held against him in favor of some lesser player on a winning team, the voters broke with tradition and went for the player with stellar individual numbers. In winning the MVP, Trout became just the sixth player from a losing team to take home the hardware. It was a victory for the new ways of player evaluation and a more modern take on what the “valuable” part of MVP really means.

But even if Trout hadn’t won the award, he could have taken the same solace he could last year: MVP or not, but he’s still tracking to be the G.O.A.T.

Through every single age in which he played a full season,2 Trout has been the all-time career leader in Baseball-Reference.com’s WAR for position players. It was true through age 20, age 21, age 22, age 23 and — after posting 10.6 WAR in 2016, a performance that basically matched his previous single-season peakage 24. No player has ever started his career on this kind of tear — not Ruth, not Cobb, not Mantle, nobody.

PLAYER WAR PLAYER WAR
WAR Through Age 20 WAR Through Age 21
1 Mike Trout 11.4 1 Mike Trout 20.7
2 Mel Ott 11.4 2 Mel Ott 17.9
3 Ty Cobb 9.5 3 Ty Cobb 15.7
4 Bryce Harper 8.9 4 Ken Griffey Jr. 15.5
5 Al Kaline 8.9 5 Al Kaline 15.4
a
WAR Through Age 22 WAR Through Age 23
1 Mike Trout 28.6 1 Mike Trout 37.9
2 Ty Cobb 25.5 2 Ty Cobb 36.0
3 Ted Williams 23.6 3 Ted Williams 34.2
4 Mel Ott 23.5 4 Mel Ott 31.4
5 Alex Rodriguez 22.9 5 Ken Griffey Jr. 30.1
a
WAR Through Age 24
1 Mike Trout 48.5
2 Ty Cobb 46.7
3 Mickey Mantle 40.9
4 Alex Rodriguez 38.0
5 Ken Griffey Jr. 37.0
Mike Trout is (still!) the G.O.A.T. at any age

Most career WAR through each age since 1901, among position players.

Source: Baseball-Reference.com

As a result — and in concert with MLB labor mechanisms that force young stars to either play for peanuts through their arbitration years or lock themselves into long, below-market extensions (as Trout did in 2014, re-signing with the Angels through 2020) — Trout has produced a ton of surplus value for the Angels, relative to what he’s been paid. According to FanGraphs.com, Trout’s production would have been worth about $357 million on the open market since his MLB debut, a span over which he was paid only about $24 million.

That’s why speculation that the Yankees are loading up for a Trout trade breaks down upon examination. At a glance, why not ship Trout away from a rebuilding team where his WAR is being wasted (aside, of course, from Angels fans who like to watch him play) to a huge market that has the prospects for a blockbuster deal? The answer: It would take a monster package of young talent to justify trading away a player who so outperforms his contract and probably will continue to do so for the next several years.

If we apply Tom Tango’s simple WAR projection system with an average future value of $8.6 million per win,3 the final four seasons of Trout’s contract figure to see him generate 32.5 WAR, for a market value of $282 million,4 and be paid $122 million. So it probably won’t be until Trout’s next contract that the cost-benefit tradeoff of having him around begins to make a trade realistic for either the Angels or the team they’re negotiating with.

At that point, the math gets a little silly. Even in the first year of his next deal, Trout’s WAR projects to be worth so much on the open market (roughly $75 million) that he’d need a truly paradigm-shifting contract — one that would basically double the highest annual salary of anybody in the game right now — to not be underpaid. With superstar free-agent deals, the question often isn’t whether they’ll be paid more than they’re worth, but by how much. Trout, however, is so good that it might be hard for him to earn fair market value even in his big post-prime payday.

For now, that means Trout is probably stuck carrying the Angels. In the past, that would have also meant his chances of contending for the MVP were slim, despite his incredible individual numbers. But perhaps Trout’s win Thursday also signals a change in the way voting will be conducted going forward. The MVP electorate has been skewing more progressive for a while, in terms of its willingness to use sabermetric tools, and there’s nothing more open-minded than giving the MVP to the leader of a 74-88 team.

But maybe it was also about Trout’s own particular greatness. No player has ever been so good at such a young age; it was likely that future generations would have looked at his repeated MVP snubs and wondered what the hell the voters were thinking to deny him the AL’s top individual award, over and over.

Footnotes

  1. Ever since he first became a full-time player in 2012.

  2. Not including his age-19 season in 2011, when he logged only 40 games after a July call-up.

  3. Starting with a rough cost-estimate of $8 million per WAR next season, with 5 percent annual growth until 2020.

  4. Including the yearly minimum salary of about $500,000.

Neil Paine is a senior sportswriter for FiveThirtyEight.

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