Skip to main content
ABC News
Late Movement?

Not much. These are the pollsters who released polling within the past 24 hours and also have trendlines to look at:


Pollster Before Now Trend
IA c7 c4 Obama +3
SUSA c9 c12 Clinton +3
PPP c8 c5 Obama +3
Zogby tie o2 Obama +2
ARG c8 c7 Obama +1
c6.4 c5.2 Obama +1.2

North Carolina

Pollster Before Now Trend
SUSA o5 o5 No movement
IA o5 o3 Clinton +2
Zogby o16 o8 Clinton +8
PPP o12 o10 Clinton +2
ARG o11 o8 Clinton +3
o9.8 o6.8 Clinton +3.0

Four of the five Indiana polls have trended toward Obama (one toward Clinton) and four of the five North Carolina polls toward Clinton (one is unchanged). But the only case where the movement exceeds four points is in the Zogby tracker of North Carolina, where the poll jumped a bunch on the first day of its release, but has held steady ever since.

Remember, the AVERAGE error made by a pollster in the primaries so far exceeds 7 points, and taking polling averages won’t always help because the error terms tend to be correlated with one another. So by that definition — anything can still happen. But my gut says that we’re headed toward an anti-climactic result tomorrow.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.