It’s still an extreme longshot, but I’m just about ready to go with our first version of Senate polling averages, and one state that comes out surprisingly close in my regression model is South Carolina. The Republican incumbent, Lindsey Graham, remains relatively unpopular, and the Democratic candidate, Bob Conley, is sort of a Ron Paul-esque neopaleoconservative masquerading in Democratic clothing. The problem with a candidate like Conley is that he’ll get neither the support of the Democratic establishment nor the progressive netroots, but the Ron Paul people are starting to notice him, and we know that their wallets are stuffed.
Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. @natesilver538