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Indiana Scorecard

After the jump are my projections for Indiana extrapolated to a county-by-county level, along with some basic demographic information about each county. Since returns come in by county rather than Congressional District — I figure it will be a little easier to follow the action this way. However, because my model was not designed to work at the county level, there may be an additional margin of error here. The results for the large counties should be more reliable than the results for the smaller ones.

Very important: These results are calibrated in order to match the current margin in the Real Clear Politics polling average: Clinton +5.0. For Obama to win Indiana, he’ll need to be beating these numbers by about 5 percent across the board. For Clinton to win Indiana by double digits, she’d need to beat these numbers by about 5 percent.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.