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How Tennessee Voted Last Time

The 2008 Republican primary in Tennessee was a relatively close election. Former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas eked out a narrow 3 percentage point victory over Senator John McCain of Arizona, 35 percent to 32 percent. Mitt Romney earned 24 percent of the vote. But Tennessee voters exhibited relatively clear regional voting patterns.

Mr. Huckabee did well in and around Memphis and Chattanooga and among Tennessee’s rural voters. Mr. McCain, for his part, performed well around Knoxville and Clarksville, while Mr. Romney’s best counties were in the Nashville area. Lastly, Ron Paul tended to do best in counties that contain big city universities, such as Hamilton County, Knox County and Davidson County.

The 2012 race in Tennessee is close to being a toss-up. Moreover, FiveThirtyEight’s projected vote-shares look strikingly like the 2008 figures, with Mr. Santorum in Mr. Huckabee’s role, Mr. Romney in Mr. McCain’s and Newt Gingrich filling the spot of 2008 Romney.

Now, the maps:

Micah Cohen is FiveThirtyEight’s former managing editor.