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How Much Uncertainty Is Left About The Election?


FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver and politics editor Micah Cohen talk about how much we still don’t know about the state of the presidential race in the latest installment of “Model Talk” from our Elections podcast. Hillary Clinton is likely to win, but there’s still a lot we don’t know. In Utah, for example, independent candidate Evan McMullin’s chances of winning have risen to 14 percent, according to our polls-only model (and 25 percent in our nowcast). Nate also answers listener questions about how the forecast model works, including who actually enters new polls.

You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button above or by downloading it in Apple Podcasts, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.

The FiveThirtyEight Elections podcast publishes Monday evenings, with occasional special episodes throughout the week. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.

Micah Cohen is FiveThirtyEight’s former managing editor.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.