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How Much The Polls Missed By In Every State

There’s been so much talk since Nov. 8 about what the polls got wrong. The national polls are ultimately going to be off by only about 2 percentage points, which is not out of the ordinary historically speaking. State polls however, missed by wider margins. In 41 of the 50 states, the average of the polls underestimated Donald Trump’s margin of victory. But they weren’t wrong by the same magnitude or in the same direction in every state. Here’s a simple average of the polls conducted in the last three weeks of the campaign in each state:


Dhrumil Mehta is a database journalist at FiveThirtyEight focusing on politics.