The bounce that candidates receive in the polls after a primary or caucus is typically as much a function of exceeding expectations as their actual performance. Although Mitt Romney won the Iowa caucuses by eight votes, it looks as though Rick Santorum will see the largest improvement in his poll numbers.
Mr. Santorum received 21 percent of the vote in a national poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports on Wednesday. Although Rasmussen Reports had not polled the Republican race since November, this reflects a huge improvement over Mr. Santorum’s typical numbers, as he had never polled above 6 percent in a national survey until this week.
Meanwhile, Mr. Santorum’s share of the vote increased to 11 percent, from 8 percent, in the Gallup daily tracking poll. What’s impressive about this is that Gallup uses a five-day rolling sample, meaning that only 20 percent of its interviews were conducted after Mr. Santorum’s showing in Iowa. A little bit of algebra would imply that Mr. Santorum polled at or just above 20 percent in interviews conducted on Wednesday alone, consistent with his standing in the Rasmussen Reports survey.
Mr. Santorum has also gotten a lift in New Hampshire surveys, although it is not as significant. Based on a Zogby poll of New Hampshire conducted entirely on Wednesday, and a Suffolk University tracking poll that conducted half its interviews on Wednesday, our forecast model projects Mr. Santorum to win 12 percent of the vote in New Hampshire, partly based on his favorable momentum. Mr. Santorum had generally polled in the low double digits in New Hampshire prior to Iowa.
Whether Mr. Romney’s numbers are tracking upward or downward is unclear. The Rasmussen Reports poll showed him at 29 percent nationally, better than his average of about 25 percent in national polls conducted prior to Iowa. However, the Suffolk tracking poll showed him ticking slightly downward in New Hampshire.
Still, Mr. Romney has plenty of votes to spare in New Hampshire, and it would require a minor miracle for any other candidate to win the state. He projects to 43 percent of the vote in the forecast model, which gives him a 94 percent chance of winning New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday. The candidate with the best chance of pulling off the upset is Ron Paul, who projects to 24 percent of the vote.