Polling during the past 48 hours has tended to show very slight gains for the Conservatives and Labour at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. Our projection model now forecasts that Conservatives will have 312 seats in the House of Commons (up from 308 in our previous forecast), Labour 204 (up from 198) and Liberal Democrats, 103 (down from 113).
Whereas in Monday’s update, our polling model had been pegged to an “average of averages” (those calculated by PoliticsHome and UK Polling Report, respectively), those sites have not updated their figures so I’m taking a simple average of the final polls released by all the UK pollsters instead. That would project a popular vote outcome of Conservatives 35.5, Liberal Democrats 27.5, Labour 27.4, excluding any votes cast in Northern Ireland.
The only other change is that last week’s regional polling from YouGov has been added in averaged with their regional polling from the week previous.
Further discussions and disclaimers about our model can be found here. Our model continues to show substantially different results from uniform swing, which would project the election at Conservatives 283, Labour 253, LibDems 81 on these totals.
EDIT: If, as before, we take an “average of averages” from UK Polling Report and PoliticsHome — both of whom have their numbers up now — our forecast is only trivially different, with a prediction of Conservatives 315, Labour 205, LibDems 99.
