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Charts Updated (Finally)

Numerous technical glitches have made this a not-very-fun day, but the tables and graphs on the site have now been updated. Obama’s win percentage is back up to where it was a couple of days ago, in the low 60s. I recognize that some people think there’s too much volatility in the model — but when the polls are volatile, so will the model be. With so many states being close, a change of even so much as half a percentage point in the popular vote has profound implications for the electoral college.

In the polling thread, I also suggested that the model would consider Florida to be a swing state. This was guesswork on my part, and in fact the model is not ready to do that quite yet — it still rates McCain as about a 3-point favorite. If the new Quinnipiac poll, which ought to be out any day now (Quinnipaic typically publishes on Thursdays), shows Obama maintaining or increasing his lead, we may have a different story.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.


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