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Challenge to Dick Bennett of American Research Group

Let’s each predict:

1) Hillary Clinton’s winning margin, and,
2) The exact number of votes cast in the West Virginia Democratic Primary.

You can use your firm’s polling (probably a bad idea) or your gut to project your totals. I can use my model or my gut to project the totals. Final guesses are due at 11:59 PM Central Time on Monday, May 12 and should be posted on the frontpages of our respective websites. No action if Hillary Clinton officially suspends her campaign between now and then.

Stakes default to pride, but additional terms are negotiable. My contact information is easy to find. I reserve the right to make public any such communications.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.


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