Two years ago, I tried to predict the Oscar winners by crunching data from the last 30 years of awards history. The project was a mixed success. But I’ve dusted off the database and aimed to simplify it — boiling it down to a few core factors that have been especially reliable predictors in the past. Here, then, over at the Carpetbagger, are the rules-of-thumb for predicting the Oscars. Read more.
Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. @natesilver538