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Wednesday, July 17, 2019
When people ask me who I think is going to win the Democratic nomination, I shrug my shoulders and say, “I have no freaking idea.” It’s worth keeping in mind that in a field of 20-something candidates with no runaway frontrunner, all of the candidates are fairly heavy underdogs. Joe Biden is probably going to lose. Kamala Harris is probably going to lose. Elizabeth Warren is probably going to lose. Bernie Sanders is probably going to lose. And so forth.
Basketball, in some sense, is fundamentally a shooting game. Shooting isn’t the only important action that takes place on a basketball court, obviously. But if no one kept track of who was taking shots and making buckets, we’d have, at best, an extremely fuzzy impression of which players were actually any good, even if we had access to all their other statistics.
We’ll know next week who made the stage for the second Democratic primary debate on July 30-31 — July 16 is the deadline for polls that can affect who qualifies — so stay tuned, but in the meantime, here’s an early look at which Democrats are positioned to make the third debate in September.
Keep track of the chaotic NBA offseason with our Free Agency Diary.
In the wake of June’s Democratic presidential debate, most polling agrees that former Vice President Joe Biden is still the front-runner (although the size of his lead has taken a hit), followed by a rough three-way tie among Sens. Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. But as we already have seen numerous times this primary season, the standings are fluid. Many voters probably will change their minds between now and when voting begins. So it’s also valuable to take note of whom people’s second choices are.
Eric Swalwell, we hardly knew ye. The Democrat announced on Monday that he was dropping out of the presidential race to instead focus on his duties as the U.S. representative of California’s 15th District.
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
Keep track of the chaotic NBA offseason with our Free Agency Diary.
After the basketball world collectively picked its jaw up off the floor in the wake of the Kawhi Leonard and Paul George news, the spotlight shifted to Russell Westbrook, the Oklahoma City star who may be on the move now that his team appears to be pivoting toward a full-on rebuild.
