Wednesday, August 15, 2018
When Ohio Republican Rep. Pat Tiberi announced in October 2017 that he would resign from the U.S. House of Representatives to become president of the Ohio Business Roundtable, Doug Jones and Conor Lamb were not yet household names, and Democrats had yet to flip a Republican-held seat in a special election. What a difference 10 months make. Ohio’s 12th Congressional District will finally elect Tiberi’s successor on Tuesday, and the race is following a very similar script to previous special elections.
We had two very, very close races in Tuesday’s night elections.
Last week, FiveThirtyEight published nearly 3 million tweets sent by handles affiliated with the Internet Research Agency, a Russian “troll factory.” That group was a defendant in one of special counsel Robert Mueller’s indictments, which accused the IRA of interfering with American electoral and political processes.
In the era of President Trump, it’s become fashionable to presume that politicians can do whatever they like and get away with it. But if recent elections to Congress are any guide, scandals do have large and measurable effects. So when U.S. Rep. Chris Collins, the Republican from New York’s 27th Congressional District, was arrested on insider trading charges on Wednesday morning, it took a seat that had looked to be fairly safe for Republicans and put it into the competitive category.
After a quiet July, the primary calendar roars back to life in August. Here at FiveThirtyEight, that means putting our trusty primary-preview-writing pen to paper (did you miss us?) and cranking up the ol’ live blog (join us Tuesday night as we digest some results). We’ve got four states coming at you this week:
This story was produced in collaboration with ABC News and Ballotpedia. Research by Ballotpedia and Roey Hadar, Lee Harris, Adam Kelsey, Adia Robinson, Meena Venkataramanan and John Verhovek of ABC News.
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
You may know that Mike Trout is on pace to be the greatest baseball player of all time, but it’s easy to lose sight of why. His prowess at hitting, fielding and running makes him the kind of player you only see once in a generation.
Suneel Gupta had his bags packed, ready to go to Washington. It was the night of Nov. 8, 2016, and Gupta, then a tech entrepreneur, was itching to leave the Bay Area and begin a new job in the Clinton White House.