FiveThirtyEight
Rob Arthur

The Astros Earned It

Well, the game is over and so is our live blog. What a terrible way for a great series to end. The Houston Astros defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-1 tonight to claim the World Series title, with scarcely a hint of a comeback from L.A., who trailed from the first inning. In a Series defined by each team’s bullpen, this one came down to the starting pitchers. Specifically, Yu Darvish came out with one of the most unexpectedly poor starts of the playoffs. The decision to give Darvish the start instead of, say, Clayton Kershaw (or almost anybody else!) will be endlessly debated, and with good reason. If Darvish had been handed slightly fewer innings, this season would probably have ended very differently for the Dodgers. That Dave Roberts erred in pulling Darvish too late — after six games in which he arguably pulled his starters too early — is a poisonous irony for L.A.’s fans. The Astros won the Series on the backs of their hitters. Between a shaky bullpen and Lance McCullers leaving seven Dodgers on base, neither the starters nor the relievers seemed to have the game in hand. (Except for Charlie Morton, the onetime Pittsburgh Pirates back-of-the-rotation arm who pitched four scoreless innings to close out the game.) But just as they had throughout the matchup, the lineup came through, starting (of course) with a George Springer double. The five runs the Astros scored in the first two innings were enough to win the game in part because of the Dodgers’ remarkable futility with runners in scoring position. The Astros are a lovable Team Of Destiny. On top of some of the most amazing young talent in the game (Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, the aforementioned George Springer) they have Carlos Beltran, a 40-year-old slugger and likely Hall of Famer who, until today, didn’t have a title to his name. It’s good to see them win. Like the Cubs and Indians last year, it seems likely that both the winners and losers of this Series will sustain their success in the next few years. It wouldn’t be surprising if they meet again in the next Fall Classic. In fact, considering how exciting (most of) this World Series was, let’s hope that they do.
Emily Scherer

Sports Illustrated and Taylor Swift called it.
Daniel Levitt

If Sports Illustrated can make bold predictions, so can I: Toronto Blue Jays 2018 World Series Champions. Good night.
Neil Paine

After all that, for the second straight season the two World Series teams went seven games and scored exactly the same number of runs in the series. A golden age for close baseball.
Geoff Foster

If L.A. fans call an Uber now they can make it to Staples Center in time for the end of the Clippers game.
Colleen Barry

Final score update: Astros 5, Dodgers 1. Houston wins the game and the Series.
Daniel Levitt

In all seriousness, if this score holds up, this is a great story for the city of Houston after the year they’ve had. Very pleased for them.
Harry Enten

Before tonight, there had never been a World Series Game 7 in Los Angeles. Unless there’s a miracle, I’m guessing Dodger fans will wish there wasn’t a Game 7 there tonight.
Geoff Foster

If the results hold, this will be four straight World Series wins clinched on the road. Which is always a letdown. The San Francisco Giants won all three titles this decade on the road. Meanwhile, it’s still hard to believe the Giants won three titles this decade. I’ve never seen a dynasty be less of a dynasty. Baseball is weird.
Daniel Levitt

A consolation prize for Los Angeles tonight is that they managed to fill a stadium. (Come at me, Rams fans.)
Harry Enten

Charlie Morton’s lack of success at the plate is no surprise. He is a terrible hitter. His offensive WAR during his career is -2.1 thanks in part to batting just 0.74.
Neil Paine

Since 2009, that Morton at-bat was only the third time a pitcher batted in the 9th inning of a World Series game.
Daniel Levitt

The Astros have a ton of home-grown talent. In fact, their three original first-round picks to play in this World Series — Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and George Springer — have combined for nine home runs and 17 RBI, compared with six home runs and 15 RBI by the rest of the team, per Douglas Clawson of ESPN’s Stats & Information Group.
Tony Chow

Astros 5, Dodgers 1. Top of the 9th. Come watch Game 7, they said. It will be fun, they said.
Rob Arthur

This Game 7 is down to the 33rd most exciting Game 7 in World Series history. All the less-entertaining games took less than three hours, though, and we’ve got an outside chance to hit four. Modern baseball!
Daniel Levitt

If this Astros lead holds up — the Dodgers are rapidly running out of time — and Springer does go on to win the Willie Mays Award, he’d be the third alumnus of a very small private school in Avon, Connecticut, to win MVP honors for the championship round of one of the four major North American sports, per Zachary Singer of ESPN’s Stats & Information Group. The others: Jonathan Quick (2012 Stanley Cup Final) and Brian Leetch (1994 Stanley Cup Final).
Emily Scherer

I love looking over and catching Unimpressed Larry King behind home plate. https://twitter.com/rodger_sherman/status/925910589133737987
Daniel Levitt

In 23 minutes, we will have today off. (Editor’s note: Still no.)
Tony Chow

Score update: Astros 5, Dodgers 1. Middle of the 8th. Time update: It’s 23 minutes till Thursday on the East Coast.
Daniel Levitt

I love this country.
Neil Paine

Daniel, you’re a little young to know what truly strange Duracell ads look like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_X25g_EmSE
Daniel Levitt

For anyone watching on FOX, that was a strange Duracell ad. But the last one, apparently!
Daniel Levitt

Time for another name, and perhaps my favorite: Grover Lowdermilk.
Neil Paine

Tough to fix timing in a sport without a clock, Jody.

https://twitter.com/jodyavirgan/status/925919087699611648
Geoff Foster

Going back to Chris’s question, I’m also not convinced that Kershaw would pitch like that without a 5-0 deficit. It was a relatively low-pressure environment for a guy who isn’t himself in the postseason.
Neil Paine

To Smoltz’s point about spinning baseballs, there have been 663 breaking balls thrown by both teams this series. That’s tied with the 2011 series for the most total breaking balls in a World Series since 2009, and I’m pretty sure that somebody will throw at least one next inning.
Rob Arthur

Right, Geoff, Yu Darvish is a hell of a pitcher, too (usually). On most teams, he’d be the Game 1 starter and ace of the rotation, so it’s utterly mystifying that he performed so poorly. Now, there is some second-guessing to be done because this wasn’t the first time this Series that Darvish struggled. And pitcher performance can be streaky — they can go through hot and cold streaks. But there didn’t look to be anything mechanically wrong with Darvish, and so to some extent, his bad start was unpredictable. Hindsight is 20/20 though; I bet Roberts wishes he had started Kershaw now too.
Geoff Foster

Chris, I think they had to give Darvish a shot. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball and their prize midseason acquisition. Also, it’s some pretty bad optics for Roberts if Kershaw gets bombed. So in summary, I have no clue.
Harry Enten

It’s easy to second-guess Dave Roberts, Chris. He makes it really easy.
Chris Herring

I’m only coming here to ask this because I genuinely don’t understand: Why the hell didn’t the Dodgers start Kershaw? He pitched his butt off, and he’s their ace.
Neil Paine

I’m just not sure they should use Verlander in a non-save situation.
Rob Arthur

With a possibly tired Morton going against the heart of the Dodgers order (and an empty Astros bullpen), this inning probably represents L.A.’s best chance to mount a comeback.
Harry Enten

Just for fun I decided to look up the first time the Roper Archives listed a poll that mentioned the Dodgers and Astros. The answer for the Dodgers is 1946, while it’s 1997 for the Astros. Those numbers give you an insight into the relative success of the two franchises, which is part of what would make an Astros victory tonight so interesting from a historical perspective.
Harry Enten

Remember the Astros bullpen is giving up about seven earned runs per nine innings in this series. That’s part of the reason people are sticking around. The game isn’t over yet.
Emily Scherer

Now that the free taco offer has been activated, stolen bases just don’t have the same thrill.
Neil Paine

That throw by Austin Barnes was errant, and that’s nothing new. Barnes ranked 86th out of 110 catchers in Baseball Prospectus’s catcher throwing runs this season.
Tony Chow

Astros 5, Dodgers 1. Middle of the 7th. I was going to make a joke wondering if Dodgers fans will leave a Game 7 earlier or later than usual but it looks like they’re sticking around, L.A. traffic be damned.
Daniel Levitt

Will the Astros win tonight without the help of Altuve and Correa? The pair have hit a combined .435 in Houston’s seven ALCS and World Series wins thus far, and .070 in their six losses. Tonight they’re hitting a combined .167.
Neil Paine

In his entire postseason career, Kenley Jansen has thrown a grand total of 3.1 innings with a deficit of four or more runs.
Daniel Levitt

It would be fitting for George Springer to win the World Series MVP. Major League Baseball renamed the award in honor of Willie Mays, a center fielder, this year. It’s now known as the Willie Mays World Series MVP Award.
Rob Arthur

That mini-rally brought the Dodgers’ win expectancy all the way up to … almost 12 percent. With Seager’s out, they’re back at 5 percent, though.
Geoff Foster

Now, it’s time for great moments in flying World Series bat shard history: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNTWUPsPrJ8
Geoff Foster

Hinch will use Keuchel as closer perhaps.
Neil Paine

Verlander is out in the pen, Geoff …
Neil Paine

Harry, the Astros got 2.4 Baseball-Reference WAR out of their pen this season. That would tie for 11th-worst among World Series winners in the 162-game era.
Rob Arthur

This game is closing in on the three-hour mark, with three innings left to go. So not only is this game one of the least-exciting World Series Game 7s, it’s also going to end up one of the longest. Indeed, for all the excitement this Series has brought, almost every contest has been painstakingly slow. That problem isn’t unique to this matchup — every game this postseason seems to have suffered from painfully slow pace. But the high-scoring nature of these contests and the endless bullpen arms has exacerbated the issue.
Tony Chow

Another score update: Astros 5, Dodgers 1. Bottom of the sixth. One out.
Harry Enten

As I noted earlier, this Astros bullpen is just awful. I’m wondering if there has been a World Series winner in recent history that had a bullpen as bad of a pen as the Astros’ has been.
Geoff Foster

The Dodgers have had the lead-off man on in five of six innings. There’s going to be a three-run homer, it’s inevitable.

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